A solar remedy

Pakistan stands at a critical juncture in its energy landscape. With a burgeoning population, increasing energy demands and a chronic energy crisis, the need for a sustainable, affordable and reliable energy source has never been more pressing.

Solar energy, with its vast potential, presents an opportunity for Pakistan to address its energy problem and rise into a new era of sustainable development. Embracing solar energy could transform Pakistan’s energy infrastructure, economy and environmental outlook, leading to long-term prosperity and independence. As a green source of energy with no Greenhouse Gas (GHGS) emissions, solar power can significantly reduce Pakistan’s carbon footprint, which peaked at 200 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MtCo2) emissions in 2022.

Inefficiencies, outdated infrastructure, heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels and high cost of electricity beset Pakistan’s energy sector. Frequent power outages and loadshedding are common, crippling industries, affecting daily life and impeding economic growth. Despite the country’s considerable natural resources, the energy mix remains heavily skewed towards thermal power, which is both costly and environmentally damaging.

The gap between supply and demand continues to widen, necessitating urgent and innovative solutions. Pakistan typically meets more than a third of its annual power demand using imported natural gas, prices for which shot up following Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Fuel shipments make up the bulk of Pakistan's import bill and current foreign exchange reserves barely cover a month's worth of imports.

The promised four Es – Employment, Education, Energy and Environment – by the government are falling apart. Promises of tackling the recent energy crisis by building 8,000MW of new coal, solar, hydroelectric and wind electric generation plants have fallen through the cracks of the proverbial dilatory Pakistani political and bureaucratic elites. An ageing hamstrung transmission and distribution system, power theft, large commercial losses owing to poor billing and collection systems, power tariff scheme and power purchase contracts lopsided in favour of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are the reasons for the current crisis.

Pakistan’s total installed electricity capacity as of March 2024 stood at 42,131MW. According to the 2023-2024 Economic Survey, the maximum total demand from residential and industrial estates was nearly 33,737MW, whereas the installed transmission and distribution capacity is not meeting the requirements. The capacity payments of Rs8.344 trillion have been made to the IPPs during the last 10 years. It has been anticipated that capacity payments of Rs2.1 trillion will be paid to the IPPs during FY 2024-25 based on capacity rather than consumption, resulting in a huge burden on the economy and consumers. The other big weakness is the insufficient capacity of the power distribution system, which is 20,000MW less than the installed production capacity.

It also validates Pakistan’s target to increase Variable Energy Resources (VRE) to 20 per cent of its electricity mix by 2025 and 30 per cent by 2030 which is 24,000MW ,and even shows that a slightly higher preponderance of solar and wind would be economically beneficial. More than 10,000 MW of thermal capacity is going to be retired within the next 15 years. An optimum expansion would see a mixture of VRE (solar photovoltaic and wind) and hydropower fill the gap up to 2032.

Pakistan is geographically blessed with abundant sunlight, receiving an average of 5.5 kWh/m² per day of solar irradiance, one of the highest in the world. This makes solar energy a highly viable and attractive option for the country. Solar power can provide a decentralised, reliable and clean energy source, reducing dependence on imported fuels and mitigating the environmental impact of conventional energy sources and the burden on the country’s foreign reserves.

Pakistan has tremendous potential to generate solar and wind power. According to the World Bank, utilising just 0.071 per cent of the country’s area for solar PV would meet Pakistan’s electricity demand. According to the VRE Integration and Planning Study by the World Bank, solar and wind power should be urgently expanded to at least 30 per cent of Pakistan’s total electricity generation capacity by 2030, equivalent to around 24,000MW. It is to highlight that in the said installed capacity, the share from VRE resources includes 5,539 megawatt peak (MWp) of Solar PV (utility solar & net metering).

Expanding renewable energy can make electricity cheaper, achieve greater energy security, reduce carbon emissions and help Pakistan save up to $5 billion over the next 20 years.

As of June 2023, 500MWp utility-scale solar PV and 1,845mw wind power on-grid projects have been commissioned in the National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) system, whereas 100MWp utility-scale solar PV has been installed in the K-Electric system.

Investment in solar energy infrastructure can stimulate economic growth, create thousands of jobs in manufacturing, installation, maintenance and research and reduce the trade deficit. Local production of solar panels and components can spur industrial growth and reduce reliance on imports, fostering a more self-reliant economy.

By transitioning to solar power, Pakistan can reduce its energy costs in the long run, providing a stable and affordable energy supply to households and businesses. Currently, the price of a 1KW solar system in Pakistan is around Rs141,000 to Rs150,000, saving a household up to 120 to 150 electricity units per month with a life of approximately 25 to 40 years. In the future, a new coating of special organic molecules developed by a Chinese research team can enhance the efficiency to nearly 31 per cent while maintaining long-term stability.

Pakistan needs a supportive policy framework and robust infrastructure to realise solar energy's full potential. The government should incentivise investment in solar projects through subsidies, tax breaks and favourable tariffs. Streamlining the regulatory process and providing financial support for research, development and production can accelerate the adoption of solar technology.

Furthermore, investing in high-capacity grid infrastructure is crucial to integrate solar power efficiently. Developing smart grids, energy storage solutions, and decentralised local energy systems can enhance the reliability and efficiency of the energy supply.

By harnessing the power of the sun, Pakistan can pave the way for a sustainable and prosperous future. Policymakers, industry leaders and communities must embrace this clean, reliable and abundant energy source. The time for solar energy is now and Pakistan must seize this opportunity to illuminate its path to energy independence and sustainable development. Such a policy would lead to immediate and long-term economic, supply security, and environmental benefits and ensure Pakistan’s participation in the global energy transition.

The writer is a PhD scholar in international relations and an independent researcher.