Pahalgam incident: An academic who saw it coming

ISLAMABAD: “The writing was on the wall for those willing to read it,” posted a user on X (formerly Twitter) late Thursday, alongside a resurfaced prediction made over five years ago about an impending Indian “false flag” operation.

The post warned that India might leverage a domestic security crisis as a pretext to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a scenario that has now unfolded.

The forecast wasn’t from an armchair analyst. It was penned by Dr Raja Qaisar Ahmed, an associate professor of political science and international relations at Quaid-e-Azam University, who posted the warning on Facebook on November 6, 2019.

“Following the abrogation of Article 370, I anticipate that the revocation of the Indus Waters Treaty could be the next unprecedented step taken by the Modi-led government with uncharacteristic implications for Pakistan,” Dr Qaisar had written.

In the same post, he cautioned that Pakistan should prepare for such a development within the next five years, foreseeing that India might use a domestic security incident to justify the move. “The ideological momentum of Hindutva driving current policies shows no sign of ending anytime soon,” he concluded.

Just two months before that post, in September 2019, Dr Qaisar published an article in the Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services (PIPS) research journal titled “Kashmir Mayhem and Pakistan’s Policy.” In it, he called the revocation of Article 370 unconstitutional even by Indian standards and urged Pakistan to take bold steps.

“The stringency of the situation necessitates some radical steps,” he wrote, “which may include revoking the Simla Agreement, supporting a government-in-exile, opening a bureau for Kashmir’s foreign affairs abroad, and revisiting the status quo in [Azad Jammu & Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan]. Otherwise, all happy-go-lucky and repeatedly tried options on Kashmir may prove counterproductive.”

Fast forward to April 2025: India has witnessed a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, and days later, it announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty — an international agreement it cannot legally withdraw from unilaterally. In response, Pakistan has held the Simla Agreement in abeyance, signaling a shift from bilateralism to internationalization of the Kashmir dispute.

When asked what led him to foresee India’s use of the water treaty as a pressure tactic, Dr Qaisar said he had closely followed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rhetoric, particularly after the 2016 Uri attack, when Modi declared, “Blood and water can’t flow together.”

From that, Dr Qaisar deduced that water would become India’s next strategic lever following Article 370’s revocation.

In his latest post, Dr Qaisar has predicted a new chapter in the water dispute: “India is likely to seek negotiations with Pakistan for a revised Indus Waters Treaty — essentially proposing an ‘Indus Waters Treaty II’ aimed at altering the current water-sharing arrangements… Pakistan policymakers should prepare for an imminent formal demand from India for a renegotiation of water-sharing terms.”

Regarding Pakistan’s decision to suspend the Simla Accord, Dr Qaisar called it a long-overdue move. “This elevates the Kashmir issue from a bilateral to an international dispute—its rightful status, already recognised by the United Nations,” he noted.

The 1972 Simla Agreement, signed between Prime Ministers Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Indira Gandhi, had designated Kashmir a bilateral issue — a concession by Pakistan that India has since exploited.

“Pakistan should have taken this step right after the revocation of Article 370 by India,” Dr Qaisar said. He had not only written about this in 2019 but had also suggested it in a meeting convened by then -Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. Yet, Islamabad limited its response to diplomatic protests. “It was a timid response from Pakistan,” he concluded.