The United States and India Joint Leaders’ Statement issued on February 13, 2025, provoked strong reactions in Pakistan. Is it ‘much ado about nothing’ or more a case of ‘where there is smoke, there is fire’?
Sifting facts from posturing is important. Pakistan needs to objectively assess its global standing without exaggeration or romanticism. The joint statement emphasised enhanced strategic cooperation between India and the US, focusing on counterterrorism, economic partnerships and regional security. On the surface, this meeting underscored India's elevated role in global supply chains and its deepening defence and technological collaborations with the US. Is this new?
While the Modi administration hailed the recent summit as a success, independent analysts, including in India, observed that significant trade concessions and visa relaxations were not secured. Instead, the discussions predominantly centred on defence collaborations, notably the US agreement to sell F-35 fighter jets to India. This development aligns with India's defence modernisation objectives but raises concerns about regional arms balance and potential military competition.
The growing US-India defence collaboration, though not recent, signifies an attempt at shifting South Asia's military balance. India's renewed pursuit of advanced defence systems, AI-driven military technology, and cyber capabilities through US partnerships and reshaping regional security dynamics.
In this recent meeting, the US agreed to sell 5th Generation fighter aircraft to India, a move that aligns well with India's defence modernisation objectives. The extended collaboration includes joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and cooperation in areas such as space and cybersecurity. These initiatives aim to enhance India's defence capabilities and ensure regional stability. However, this deepening defence partnership also raises concerns about the regional arms balance and potential military competition, particularly with neighbouring countries like Pakistan and China.
This is part of India's ongoing strategic engagement with the US, often prioritised by the US – and, possibly knowingly to the present Indian government, may not always align with Indian interests. Starting with the more innocent.
The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) highlights the growing US-India cooperation in clean energy, digital trade, and supply chain security. Then to higher causes, particularly the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the I2U2 initiative, comprising India, Israel, the UAE and the US. The IMEC aims to enhance trade efficiency and infrastructure investment, countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Concurrently, the I2U2 seeks to boost economic cooperation in sectors such as renewable energy, food security, and technology.
The commitment by the US and India to increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 signifies a deepening economic partnership but also signals something deeper. India is already the US’s tenth-largest trading partner, with a total bilateral trade of slightly higher than $129 billion. In comparison, while the US is among Pakistan's top export destinations, Pakistan does not rank in any real standing among the top trading partners of the US. The fact that Pakistan’s total global trade, at slightly above $102 billion, does not even match the US-India trade, should beg a question. Why even try comparing or questioning?
Let us seek the answer in more sinister possibilities. The US views India as a critical alternative to China for manufacturing and investment, attributed to its skilled workforce, expanding infrastructure, regulatory improvements and growing stature, but still with low labour costs. India views these movements with the US as addressing its structural challenges, including foreign direct investment volatility and complex global trade regulations. These initiatives similarly underscore India's strategic shift towards global trade integration and supply chain resilience and positioning that can also be viewed as natural, given its growth and development trajectory along with its geostrategic position and ideological, constitutional, and projected narrative.
For Pakistan, these developments necessitate a proactive reassessment of its foreign policy including trade and connectivity strategies. Rather than adopting a reactive stance to India's initiatives, Pakistan should focus on strengthening its trade networks within the Middle East, Central Asia and other regions. This approach involves fostering bilateral economic alliances, investing in logistics and infrastructure, and leveraging regional trade frameworks to enhance its global positioning.
Pakistan's economic and foreign policy must transition from a reactive posture to one that actively seeks a massive realignment and diversification beyond the US and China. This realignment must be seriously thought through and acted upon with alacrity. This is not simply a greater focus on investment and trade diversification or simply engaging further with regional economic coalitions.
Security concerns in the region are high. Reports reveal that the TTP is now Afghanistan's largest terrorist group, with growing support from the Afghan Taliban for cross-border attacks into Pakistan. This evolving security landscape underscores the necessity for comprehensive regional counterterrorism efforts. Pakistan's policy responses should emphasise multilateral intelligence cooperation, robust counterterrorism frameworks and initiatives aimed at economic stabilisation to address these challenges effectively.
Pakistan must adopt a pragmatic, forward-thinking approach to its foreign policy. The current shifts in global alliances present opportunities for defence and economic trade diversification, infrastructure development and strategic partnerships.
By strengthening diplomatic and economic ties with regional partners, investing in technology-driven trade strategies and leveraging its geographic advantage, Pakistan can position itself as a key player in an evolving 21st-century global dynamic. Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon 'em." So said Malvolio in Twelfth Night, Act 2, Scene 5. Pakistan, please don’t be Malvolio!
The writer is a development professional working on intersectional issues in society, economics, and climate. A former World Bank staff member, he is now managing an impact advisory consulting business out of Dubai and Islamabad.
