America: the elephant in the room

US President-elect Donald Trump’s Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell has launched a flurry of tweets -- over a dozen in less than a week -- on Pakistan’s internal political landscape. Grenell’s actions suggest a calculated extension of American influence, effectively projecting soft power into Pakistan’s domestic affairs. The strategic intent behind this manoeuvre raises three critical questions: Is this an effort to shape the regional balance of power? Is this an effort to apply pressure on Islamabad? Is this an effort to secure broader geopolitical objectives?

On October 12, 2022, the classified National Security Strategy was submitted to Congress. Part III of the unclassified version outlines America’s global priorities, emphasising “Out-Competing China and Constraining Russia”, a clear acknowledgement of the strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. Regarding Iran, the strategy accuses Tehran of engaging in hybrid warfare by interfering in its neighbours’ internal affairs, proliferating missiles and drones through proxy networks, and allegedly planning asymmetric operations against American interests. On Afghanistan, the strategy underscores a counterterrorism imperative: “We will ensure Afghanistan never again serves as a safe haven for terrorist attacks”.

Grenell’s tweets -- over a dozen in less than a week -- must be analysed within the context of America’s overarching strategic doctrine, which revolves around power projection through a calibrated blend of economic leverage, information warfare, and psychological operations. Grenell’s tweets -- over a dozen in less than a week -- should be seen as a form of non-kinetic engagement, employing diplomatic signaling -- albeit in a rather undiplomatic format -- as a tool of strategic communication.

The 23,097-worded National Security Strategy mentions China nine times, Iran seven times and Afghanistan four times. Coincidentally, Pakistan shares a border with China, Iran and Afghanistan. Grenell’s tweets -- over a dozen in less than a week -- are to shape the strategic environment in and around Pakistan. Grenell’s tweets -- over a dozen in less than a week -- seek to influence Islamabad’s future decision-making towards China, Iran and Afghanistan. Grenell’s tweets -- over a dozen in less than a week -- are a deliberate effort to shape the operational environment in and around Pakistan. Grenell’s tweets -- over a dozen in less than a week -- are designed to impact Islamabad’s decision-making calculus regarding its relations with China, Iran, and Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made a serious strategic miscalculation by underestimating Grenell’s tweets -- over a dozen in less than a week. Fact 1: The geopolitical competition between the United States and China is escalating. Fact 2: For Pakistan, this escalation is reducing the scope for neutrality.

As the competition escalates, Pakistan will face mounting pressure to align with one of the two dominant powers, each manoeuvring to secure its position in the global balance of power. To avoid being entangled in a confrontation of competing spheres of influence or serving as a theatre for proxy operations, Pakistan must execute a clear and calculated strategic alignment, ensuring its national security interests remain uncompromised.