A quagmire of mistrust

The Taliban’s spring offensive not only hit Kabul but also affected the fragile peace process started by the so-called Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) comprising the US, Afghanistan, Pakistan and China.

Theoretically, these main players seem to be on the same page pursuing the long-cherished dream of peace in Afghanistan by taming the Taliban and bringing them to the negotiation table. But in reality, they stand far apart due to different interests. Fighting a lost battle from the quagmire of mistrust means that failure is the ultimate destiny of their ill-planned peace initiative.

The deepening trust deficit and lack of compromise on the part of the QCG members are diminishing the hope of peace and stability in Afghanistan. Blame game and anarchy seem to be the ultimate result of this futile exercise that has been started in the name of a ‘peace initiative’.

The dubious record of US engagement in the region is a source of suspicion for the rest. The ill-planned drawdown, which has left behind a mess of weak and incompetent institutions, shows the lack of seriousness on the part of the US. Neither Afghanistan nor Pakistan and China can trust the Americans’ commitment to a peaceful Afghanistan. They think that the US is not interested in a durable peace and would rather have a transitory peace as part of a face-saving pre-election strategy to convince voters at home of the US success in Afghanistan.

Although the US seeks Pakistan and China’s support in the reconciliation effort, it is highly envious of their influence in Afghanistan, and would rather not have a peaceful Afghanistan in which Pakistan and China are in the driving seat.

Similarly, Afghanistan and the US are highly sceptical of Pakistan’s role. The majority of the Afghans consider Pakistan to be the driving force behind the Taliban insurgency. They think that Pakistan is soft on the Taliban, and does not take any decisive action against the Taliban leadership. Immediately after the Kabul carnage of April 19, President Ashraf Ghani stated that Afghanistan’s participation in the coming QCG meeting would be conditional on strict action taken by Pakistan against the Taliban.

Pakistan, in return, has a long list of doubts and apprehension. Islamabad thinks that Kabul is not sincere and pragmatic in the peace process. It wants peace with the Taliban but on its own terms, which is not possible. Pakistan also considers some of the elements in the Afghan government as proxies of regional powers that want to destabilise Pakistan.

Apart from the mistrust, the inflexible attitudes and inherit weaknesses of the Afghan government and the Taliban are also hindering a peaceful resolution of the crisis.

Though sovereign in theory, practically the Afghan government lacks the capacity to establish its writ or make major decisions on its own. It is a loose coalition of various elements of different ethnic, ideological and political backgrounds who are playing the role of proxies of the external powers. They are not willing to give any political space to the Taliban. Internal divisions and external influences have also made the Afghan government unable to exercise its decision-making powers.

Similarly, the Taliban’s inflexible attitude is due to their internal weaknesses. Mullah Akhter Mansoor faces a legitimacy challenge and is being labelled pro-Pakistani and moderate. But no matter how moderate he is, he has to follow the hard-line policies of his predecessor Mullah Omar. Otherwise, he will lose the support of the hardcore Taliban, who are pretty sure of their victory and not ready for any compromise.

Being a viable alternative for the hardcore Taliban, Isis poses the greatest threat to the Taliban movement. Mullah Mansoor is also aware of the fact that a little deviation from their original stance or any sort of compromise will have unmanageable repercussions.

In short, peace in Afghanistan is an illusion in the face of increasing trust deficit and inflexible attitudes. All the stakeholders need to come out of their respective shells, give up their vested interests and find a workable solution. Being aware of its incapacity, the Afghan government should realise that the Taliban are a reality that cannot be ignored. The Taliban, too, should understand the ground realities and accept that they cannot be the sole masters of Afghanistan.

The US and other regional powers should come to a common ground by understanding that a peaceful Afghanistan is the key to a stable Asia and a peaceful world.

The writer works for Geo TV.

Email: saleem.safi@janggroup.com.pk