Inflation in September hits four-month high at 31.4pc

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) witnessed a significant surge in September 2023, and arrived at a four-month high of 31.4 percent. This is a notable increase from 27.4 percent in August, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday.

Previously, the inflation had seen a three-month consecutive decline which reversed in September 2023. This uptick in CPI was driven by elevated costs of food and energy, housing and utilities, and transportation charges. It is to be noted that in May 2023, Pakistan’s inflation was at its record peak of 38 percent. Since November 2021, inflation remained persistently elevated and in double-digit territory.

Interestingly, the government had set a 21 percent target for inflation for FY24, but in the first quarter (July-September), it turned out to be significantly high at 29.04 percent. According to data by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased by 87.5 percent, followed by recreation and culture, which saw a notable increase of 58.8 percent. Additionally, furnishings also experienced a significant uptick of 39.3 percent. The food inflation recorded an increase of 33.1 percent.

Likewise, hoteling charges increased by 34.3 percent, and transport expenses by 31.3 percent. Housing and utilities increased by 29.7 percent, health expenses by 25.3 percent, clothing and footwear by 20.6 percent, and education expenses increased by 11.1 percent over the same month of last year. Over August, CPI inched up by 2 percent, following a 1.7 percent increase in the prior month. The core inflation, which excludes food and energy components, arrives at 18.6 percent against 18.4 percent in the previous two months i.e. July and August. In June it was 18.5 percent and 20 percent in May 2023.

Rural inflation was significantly higher at 33.9 percent than the inflation of 29.7 percent in urban centres. Over the previous month, urban inflation increased by 1.7 percent, and rural inflation up by 2.5 percent.

The wholesale price index (WPI), a measure of producer prices, rose to 26.4 percent in September from 24.3 percent in August. The sensitive price indicator (SPI), which tracks the prices of essential items on a weekly basis, increased to 32 percent in September from 27.9 percent in August.

On a month-on-month basis, onions price increased 39.3pc, masoor pulse 19.8pc, fresh vegetables 11.8pc, sugar 10.3pc, mash pulse 9.5pc, beans 7.1pc, condiments and spices 6.3pc, gur 6.3pc, moong pulse 5.5pc, fresh fruits 4.5pc, gram pulse 2.9pc, powder milk 2.6pc, fresh milk 2.03pc and besan prices increased 1.94 percent over previous month. However, tomato prices were reduced by 13.8pc, chicken by 11.8pc, cooking oil by 1.5pc, potatoes by 1.07pc, and wheat, vegetable ghee, tea, and wheat flour prices were reduced by less than a percent.

Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, among the non-food items, motor fuel prices increased 11.3pc, liquified hydrogen charges 9.2pc, transport services 4.3pc, dental services 2.5pc, household servant 2.4pc, medical tests 1.8pc, communication apparatus 1.8pc, washing soap/detergents/matchbox 1.5pc, motor vehicle accessories 1.5pc and construction input items cost increased by 1.37 percent. However, more interestingly, PBS reported that electricity charges were reduced by 0.36 percent in September 2023 over the previous month.

On a year-on-year basis, sugar price increased 90pc, wheat flour 81pc, condiments and spices 79pc, tea 73pc, gur 67pc, rice 65pc, beans 56pc, dry fruits 49pc, wheat products 49pc, beverages 46pc, wheat 41pc, milk powder 40pc, mash pulse 36pc, readymade food 35pc and potatoes prices up by 35pc over same month of last year. However, tomato prices reduced 21pc, fresh vegetables 17pc, and gram pulse by 1.5pc.

Likewise, among the non-food items, on a yearly basis, electricity charges increased 163.7pc, textbooks 102pc, gas charges 63pc, washing soap/detergents/matchbox 53pc, stationery 47pc, communication apparatus 42pc, household equipment 39pc, newspapers 33pc, motor fuel 31pc, marriage hall charges 30pc, solid fuel 29pc, accommodation services 27pc, furniture and furnishing 27pc, construction input items 26pc, mechanical services 26pc and transport services by 21pc.