Conducive weather, farmers’ interest signal hopes of recovery

LAHORE: Cotton production may recover from last year’s collapse of 37-year low output as farmers have shown growing interest in its plantation in addition to projection of fairly conducive weather with relatively dry and hot conditions in Kharif season.

Unlike recent years, farmers have reverted to cultivate cotton on larger area, posing confidence in prevalent planting and marketing conditions. This year, farmers are increasingly opting for early sowing in particular, especially in non-core belt of the province, partly due to timely announcement of intervention price by the federal government and trend of high lint prices. Increasing number of farmers tend to deviate from strict official advisory of delaying cotton sowing till April 15 this year, seeding at greater area.

As per official figures, cotton sowing was completed on 0.4 million acres till April 1, 2023. Cotton area under cultivation in non-core districts of Punjab especially shows greater rising trend of 28.2 percent till corresponding day of last year.

Cotton cultivation in Faisalabad Division including Toba Tek Singh, Jhang and Faisalabad districts has been 57 percent higher than last year’s corresponding figures while sowing in Sahiwal Division including Okara, Pakpattan and Sahiwal districts recorded 48 percent more area so far against last year’s cultivation. Area under cotton in Bhakkar district in Sargodha Division jumped by 77 percent in the period under review, while growers in Kasur, a border district along the provincial capital Lahore, showed greater interest in cotton sowing as it planned 18 percent more area than last year.

In core cotton region, comprising of South Punjab, Vehari district led in planting cotton with 47 percent growth over last year’s corresponding figures followed by Khanewal district with 34 percent increase in cultivation. On overall basis, 25 percent jump in cotton sowing in Multan Division and 9.1 percent rise in area under cultivation in South Punjab has so far been observed.

Although early sowing points to growing interest in cotton by farmers, it does not augur well in the light of advisory issued by the provincial Agriculture Department. On the flip side of early-sowing, it may lead to more infestation of pests, especially pink bollworm.

The department used to forcefully restrict farmers in the past for sowing early. As per official stance, early cotton sown in February-March can become host to the suicidal generation of pink bollworm. Hence imposition of section 144 CrPC for ban on sowing of early cotton (before 15 April) is the only tool to prevent the farmers from early sowing of cotton.

However, according to an official, provincial government decided not to insist on sowing after mid-April as climate change severely altered weather pattern. Now, he added, cold weather has been limited to mid-February. Moreover, pesticides based on new chemistry coupled with greater awareness about pest control measures have been helping farmers in curbing onslaught of pink bollworm.

Regarding weather outlook for cotton season, an official said, on the back of expected relatively dry Kharif season and potentially lesser-than-average rains, a fairly good crop is expected this year.

A senior official of the provincial Agriculture Department said that weather conditions are particularly likely to be conducive during late Kharif season, after June. Monsoon rains are also said to be a bit below-average this year. Consequently, humidity levels will be lower, which hinder spread of pests on cotton crop. In such a favorable scenario according to an assessment, around two million bales additional can be produced in 2023-24 if compared with 37-year low cotton output of the outgoing season.