Power centres

Challenges: Pakistan is up against a whole host of formidable challenges. The three at the top of the list are: an economic crisis, extreme political uncertainty and the rising militant threat. On the economic front, things are messier today than ever before in our 75-year financial history. The rate of inflation is the highest it has been in the past 47 years. The budget and the trade deficits are the highest they have even been in the past 75 years. The national debt is unsustainable and there are hardly any dollars left in the national treasury.

On the political front, polarization is the highest it has ever been. Political actors are bending backwards to literally terminate each other as opposed to engaging in a healthy democratic political competition. On October 14, a National Security Committee meeting, with the PM in chair attended by ministers, services chiefs and heads of intelligence agencies-resolved to “push back firmly against terrorism in KP and revitalise the counterterrorism apparatus”.

The ruling coalition: To begin with, the ruling coalition has no narrative. Why did they form the government? Now that they have formed a government, what do they intend to do? No narrative for the public whatsoever. The coalition remains unwieldy – ‘difficult to move because of its size, shape and weight’. Then there’s aboulomania, a ‘disorder in which a patient displays pathological indecisiveness’.

The PTI: Yes, the PTI is a well-oiled narrative-generation machine churning out populist narratives that appeal to voters, regardless of the facts on the ground. The unfortunate part is that all that the PTI now has is two things: narratives and social media. Over the 2018-2022 period, there have been three major failures: the PTI brought the economy down to its knees; misgovernance everywhere plus a disastrous foreign policy. The PTI’s current plan is to claim ‘victimhood’ and blame it all on others. A ‘long march’ cannot bring down the government. At the very extreme a ‘long march’, if it turns bloody, may derail the system.

The US economy is slowing down. The Eurozone has slowed down already. Even the Chinese economy has slowed down. Inflation in the US is at a 40-year high. Inflation in the UK is at a 45-year high. Inflation in Pakistan is at a 47-year high. Central banks around the world are fighting inflation by jacking up the rate of interest. That means a severe recession is in the making. That means our exports will suffer. Countries with surplus capital are focused on the war in Ukraine. That means we will not be able to attract the capital we need to finance flood-related rehabilitation.

On the debt front, we are going to need four things: bilateral rescheduling; multilateral repurposing; climate related funding and IMF concessional-funding windows. The ruling coalition is confused, perhaps even disoriented. The PTI is neither confused nor disoriented. The PTI’s upcoming march may be towards Islamabad but the PTI’s clear target is the city a few kilometers from Islamabad.

Once again, our top current challenges are: an economic crisis of unprecedented proportions, extreme political uncertainty and the rising militant threat. Question: Which one of our power centres is really focused on formulating strategies to meet up the challenges?

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. He tweets @saleemfarrukh and can be reached at: farrukh15@hotmail.com