PDM alliance: United in government, divided in election

ISLAMABAD: If Sunday’s by-elections are taken as a guide, two notable indicators have emerged. First, it was a party-to-party contest unlike the impression created that it was a PTI versus ruling coalition. The voting pattern suggests that the party which fielded candidates could only mobilise its own supporters except in Multan where PMLN voters also came out in support of the PPP.

Second, the voters have shown a sign of weariness through low turnout and it was in case of all parties which saw a varying pattern of change in the vote ban. The PTI found its vote swelling in six constituencies, it shrank in five. The PTI was the only party having candidates in all the 11 constituencies where by-elections were held. Imran Khan himself was the candidate from seven National Assembly constituencies and could win six of them with varying degrees of margin. The components of ruling coalition – PMLN, PPP, ANP and JUIF – apparently had seat adjustments but they could only mobilise their individual party voters to the polling stations, an analysis of Fair and Free Election Network (Fafen) has found, which is based on the comparison of votes different parties obtained in the 2018 general elections and by-election of 2022.

Take NA-24 (Charsadda) as an example where Aimal Wali Khan was a candidate. The ANP, his party, obtained 59,483 votes in the general election of 2018 against 68,356 in late Sunday’s by-election. Apparently, the vote has increased but the vote of JUIF, which got 38,252 in 2018 election from this constituency, was absent in Sunday’s by-election. The PPP likewise got 10,462 votes in 2018 and PMLN 1,363.

Combining their 2018 vote means 97,735, which could have translated ANP candidate’s contest into victory as Imran obtained 78,589 votes and won with the lead of 10,233. In 2018, the PTI candidate received 83,495 votes meaning thereby a decrease of 5,000 votes in this election.

In Mardan (NA-22), PTI won from JUIF with 8,500 votes. Both parties have obtained this time more votes than the previous elections. In 2018, PTI got 58,577 compared to 76,681 in the last Sunday’s by-election. The JUIF contested from MMA platform in 2018, nevertheless bagged 56,318 and now its vote registered an increase in the by-election even when it was not part of the former religio-political alliance. It has obtained 68,181. The ANP received 27,104, PMLN 36,625 and PPP 13,477 votes from this constituency in 2018, which means 106,420 combined. This vote doesn’t appear to have been cast in the by-election.

The PTI was in a better position in NA-31 (Peshawar) although it got votes in the by-election (57,514) less than it obtained in the 2018 elections (87,895). The ANP, which fielded Ghulam Ahmed Bilour against Imran Khan from this constituency where it got defeated, obtained a lesser vote (32,252) in the by-election than what it got (42,476) in the 2018 elections. The JUIF obtained 11,657 votes in 2018 but its workers didn’t appear to have voted for the ANP in the by-elections.

As for Punjab, the PMLN either contested single-handedly as no other coalition partner had any significant support in this province or helped PPP win from NA-157 (Multan). The PMLN and PPP got 62,037 and 70,830 votes respectively in the 2018 elections. In the by-election, Ali Musa Gillani of PPP won with a margin of 25,186 votes. He obtained 107,327 votes this time.

For the PMLN, the major upset was in NA-108 (Faisalabad) which was considered the safest seat of the party and has this time been won by Imran Khan. Incidentally, PTI and PMLN both have got less votes this time in comparison with previous elections. In 2018, PTI got 112,740 votes and PMLN got 111,529, meaning thereby the former won with a narrow margin of less than 1,000 votes which this time has increased to 24,575 votes.

On the other hand, PTI and PMLN both saw their vote increasing in NA-188 (Nankana Sahib) but the victory margin was relatively narrow. Imran won with the majority of 12,156 votes. The PTI gained 63,818 votes in 2018 as compared to 90,180 in this by-election. The PMLN got 61,413 votes in 2018 and 78,024 in 2022. However, it appears that the PPP vote might have also come in support of PMLN in NA-188 as the former obtained 18,726 votes in the 2018 elections.