The growth myth

This refers to the editorial, ‘What grows? (May 22). According to official statistics, the growth rate for FY2015-16 is at 4.7 percent. Let us examine whether this figure is realistic and achievable. The agriculture sector, which is the mainstay of our economy, has suffered a serious setback. The production of cotton has seen a drop of 30 percent, led by Punjab, which has witnessed a fall of almost 50 percent. Rice output has fallen sizably with a 50 percent drop in exports. Sugar production has missed the target, while wheat production is stagnant. The latter means that per capita production of wheat has gone down by up to three percent owing to annual population growth.

Industrial activity has remained sluggish; this is reflected in the reduced exports of manufactured goods. Thus the growth of 6.5 percent in the industrial sector estimated by the government is to be met with much scepticism. The only positive factor in the industrial activity was the surge in car production. The 15 percent decline in exports over the low base of FY2014-15 and the unabated imports of non-essential and luxury goods has caused a whopping trade deficit which will cross $22 billion by June. The gap between the haves and have-nots has increased with more inequitable distribution of income. The economy is being damaged by the ruinous policies of the PML-N team. The next year will be even more difficult.

Arif Majeed

Karachi