Coronavirus stories, foreign media: How is the coronavirus outbreak going to end?

DUBAI: As stock markets plunge, travel is disrupted and new coronavirus infections are diagnosed across the United States, one question on everyone's mind is how the outbreak is going to end.

No one knows for sure, but virologists say there are clues from other similar outbreaks in the recent past. Here are the three most relevant scenarios:

When severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) first hit Asia in 2002, it was pretty scary - with a fatality rate of about 10% and no drugs shown to be effective against it. (The current coronavirus by comparison has an estimated fatality rate of 2.3%.) But within months, SARS was brought under control, and for the most part stamped out, by international cooperation and strict, old-school public health measures such as isolation, quarantine and contact tracing. This would be an ideal outcome. But the difference is that SARS had more severe symptoms than the current coronavirus, so people went to the hospital shortly after being infected

Cases of the current coronavirus will be harder to catch and isolate, said Stuart Weston, a postdoctoral virologist at University of Maryland. Weston is one of a small group of researchers who have received samples of the new coronavirus and are now studying it. Weston and other experts warn the outbreak in the United States and other countries is much more widespread than tracked because many people with mild symptoms don't even know they have been infected.

Coronavirus hits less developed countries, and things get much worse before they get better

One of the grim lessons from the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is how an epidemic can grow when it hits countries with weaker health infrastructures. This is why the World Health Organization and others have been putting so much attention on preparing countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the coronavirus, even though few cases so far have been reported there.

Compared to the coronavirus, Ebola was a less contagious disease, mainly transmitted by bodily fluids. The coronavirus by comparison can be transmitted in coughed and sneezed respiratory droplets that linger on surfaces. And yet Ebola infected more than 28,000 people and caused more than 11,000 deaths. Ebola is a much more lethal disease, and the outbreak was exacerbated by shortages of staff and supplies, poverty, delays by leaders and distrust of government.

WHO leaders have been trying to get countries to prepare. On Friday, the organization raised its assessment of coronavirus to the highest level. "This is a reality check for every government on the planet: Wake up. Get ready. This virus may be on its way, and you need to be ready," said Michael Ryan, WHO's director of health emergencies. "To wait, to be complacent to be caught unawares at this point, it's really not much of an excuse."

The new coronavirus spreads so widely that it simply becomes a fact of life

This is in essence what happened with the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. It spread quickly, eventually to an estimated 11 to 21% of the global population. The WHO declared it a pandemic, and there was widespread fear.

H1N1 turned out to be much milder than initially feared, causing little more than runny noses and coughs in most people. And H1N1 is now so commonplace, it's simply seen as a part of the seasonal flus that come and go every year among the global population.

Early estimates on the fatality rate for H1N1 were much higher than the roughly 0.01 to 0.03% it turned out to be. Still, the CDC estimates that H1N1 killed 12,469 people in the United States during that first-year period from 2009 to 2010, infected 60.8 million cases and caused 274,304 hospitalizations. The true number is hard to ascertain because many who die of flu-related causes aren't tested to see whether it was H1N1 or another flu strain.

Seasonal flu has killed at least 18,000 people in the United States so far this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Ultimately, how many people die of this new coronavirus depends on how widely it spreads, how prepared we are and what the virus' true fatality rate turns out to be. A few more key things will affect the coronavirus endgame

If the coronavirus does indeed become ubiquitous like H1N1, it will be crucial to develop a vaccine. After the 2009 outbreak, experts developed an H1N1 vaccine that was included in flu shots people received in subsequent years. This helped protect especially vulnerable populations during following waves of infection.

In the more immediate future, however, anti-viral drugs may help, and labs around the world are testing their effectiveness against the coronavirus.

No one knows if the coronavirus is going to be affected by seasons like the flu, despite Trump's claims that it could "go away" in April with warmer temperatures.

"We're still learning a lot about the virus," said WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove. "Right now there's no reason to think this virus would act differently in different climate settings. We'll have to see what happens as this progresses."

Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they spread from animals to humans. Experts believe SARS spread from bats to civet cats to humans. The deadly Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012 was probably transmitted from bats to camels to humans. With the coronavirus, no one knows what animals caused the current outbreak. And it's a mystery scientists will need to solve to prevent it from repeating in the future.

So far, one prime suspect is a strange, endangered creature called the pangolin that looks like a cross between an anteater and an armadillo and whose scales are trafficked illegally.

"With SARS, once they figured out the animals responsible in China, they were able to start culling them from the live markets," said Vineet Menachery, a virologist at University of Texas Medical Branch. "It's like a burst water pipe. You have to find the source in order to shut it off."

Coronavirus: Middle East cases balloon to over 3,000

DUBAI: Infections and deaths hit another high in the Middle East on Wednesday with Iran reporting 15 new deaths from coronavirus and 586 new cases of infections.

This brings the official number of total deaths to 93, and those infected to 2,922.

This also means that the Middle East region as a whole has now crossed 3,000 cases of coronavirus.

However, experts believe the real figure of both deaths and infections in Iran is even higher than this.

Such is the scale of the problem facing the country that rulers in the Islamic Republic took the completely unprecedented step of banning Friday prayers in mosques across all provincial capitals, despite the fact that this is traditionally an important weekly event for them

Iran, South Korea and Italy account for 80 per cent of the new virus cases outside China, the global epicentre of the disease.

Every single case in the Middle East region can be traced back to Iran, with Kuwait having the second largest number of infections at 56. However, the Gulf state reported no new cases today.

Extraordinary step

Meanwhile, in another extraordinary step, Saudi Arabia suspended the Umrah pilgrimage to Mecca for its citizens and residents in response to the coronavirus.

This follows the recent Saudi move to stop issuing Umrah visas to foreigners and banning GCC citizens from visiting Mecca and Medina.

The Saudi Press Agency, citing an official source in the interior ministry, said: “Based on the recommendations of the committee appointed to monitor coronavirus...it has been decided to suspend Umrah for citizens and residents in the kingdom,” adding that the decision will be reviewed regularly and reversed when the situation changes.

The number of Umrah pilgrims skyrockets during the holy month of Ramadan, which is slated to start towards the end of April.

The entire outbreak and preventive measures that have been instituted have raised concerns about the potential impact on the much larger annual Haj pilgrimage, set to begin in late July.

Deep cleaning

In the UAE on Wednesday parents and students woke up to the news that all schools and universities in the UAE would be closed for a period of four weeks starting from Sunday for the purposes of deep cleaning amid coronavirus concerns.

Nurseries who had already been given two weeks off later found out they were also part of this additional month off. Indian High School Dubai campus will be off from Thursday.

Several events were cancelled including the Abu Dhabi Book Fair and Etihad offered staff paid leave options. All exams will go ahead as usual during the four week school lay-off.

Coronavirus: Iran cancels Friday prayers across country

TEHRAN/CAIRO: Friday prayers in Iran have been cancelled across all provincial capitals amid the country’s growing coronavirus outbreak, state television said.

Friday is the main congregational day of prayer in Islam, and traditionally an important event for Iran’s clerical rulers.

The report Wednesday comes as Tehran and other areas cancelled Friday prayers last week over the outbreak.

Iran earlier announced that the new coronavirus has killed 92 people amid 2,922 confirmed cases across the Islamic Republic, the highest death toll in the world outside of China.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s Minister of Awqaf Mohammad Juma has said that cancelling Friday prayers due to an outbreak of the new coronavirus is permissible.

“If the virus spreads in a Muslim country and it becomes necessary to cancel the Friday prayer, it [the prayer] can be then performed as a noon prayer at home,” the official told Egyptian private television Al Mehwar Tuesday night.

Egypt has confirmed two cases, among a Chinese and a Canadian so far. The government has repeatedly denied claims on social media about a Covid-19 outbreak in Egypt.

Juma said that religious opinions on the viral ailment, which has triggered global fears, should be based on views of health institutions.

“In the crisis of confronting the coronavirus, we should heed opinions coming from scientific bodies such as the Health Ministry and the WHO. Then, the religious opinion should come from the specialised religious agencies, not from those seeking fame,” he added.

He vowed unspecified action against self-styled preachers accused of spreading panic among the public with their talk on the virus.

“It is important to listen to specialists: the doctors in medicine and the engineers in engineering, etc,” the official said. “We will deal with the controversial preachers seeking fame on social networking platforms.”