Water politics: no way forward

Water is one of least governed sectors in Pakistan. It is hostage to political games. Political parties are sacrificing the future of the country for their interest. They are not realising country is losing. Look at present, if not past. Flood of 2022 has shaken the whole fabric of the country.

According to initial estimates, Pakistan has suffered a loss of $30 billion, which is beyond the country’s capacity. The flood has instigated debate on water storage and governance. An overwhelming majority of experts considers lack of water storage one of major factors behind the havoc. They believe climate change is aggravating the situation and introducing complex and long-term problems.

According to UNDP, per capita availability of water will be a major challenge as water demand will increase by 14pc till 2025 due to increase in population (217 million). These estimates need to be revised as the population is increasing at a high rate.

In this context, Pakistan must realise we have reached a point where practical steps are needed and we must leave politics behind. Inactions will bring challenges which would be beyond the capacity of country to tackle. The most pertinent step would be to build water reservoirs.

Dams are required because Pakistan is among the countries having lowest water storage capacity (11MAF). It can only take care of needs of 30 days (the number is an old calculation, may has decreased due to rise in demand and increase in population and agriculture practices). It’s a pity that we can only store 11MAF.

It means a major chunk of water is being wasted or thrown into the sea and country suffers from water shortage the whole year. For example, annual flow needed down the Kotri is 8.6MAF, but we discharge some 31MAF. Despite providing that flow, Kotri has to face worst shortage of water in certain months.

On the contrary, story is entirely different in the developed countries or even in some developing countries. They have built numerous dams – China has 23,843, US 9,265, India 5,102, Japan 3,116, Brazil 1,392, Korea 1,305, Canada 1,166, South Africa 1,114, Spain 1,082, Turkiye 976, Iran 800, France 713, UK 607, Australia 507 and Germany 308 dams.

An interesting point to note here is that experts from some of these countries are leading a campaign against dams in Pakistan. Here is a lesson for Pakistani policy makers and politicians to learn.

Unfortunately, no one wants to learn. Political parties have thrown provinces into conflict. They are fighting over the allocation of water and storage facilities. It is sad that provinces are not realizing that water availability is under threat due to climate change and population outburst.

There is a need to build storage facilities to mitigate the impacts, but the politicians are not recognising the importance of storage facilities and are busy in blame game. World Bank had categorically asked Pakistan to build a series of dams to combat future challenges. Kalabagh Dam was put on priority. It was advised the dam must be built before 1990s. But, politics never allowed it to happen.

Political parties have developed a list of objections. The parties in KPK feared Nowshera will submerge due to Kalabagh Dam. No scientific research, however, supports this argument. Nowshera is 60 feet above the level of Kalabagh. Sindh has its own objections. Being low riparian, Sindh fears it might have to suffer water shortage. The province also raised the issue of down the Kotri flow during the lean period.

Balochistan is the most interesting case as its voice is missing in water allocation debate. The province is low riparian to Sindh and faces challenge due to lower availability. The provinces are complaining about water allocation, but are ignoring the real problem of variability of water availability. Further, the people there have politicised the dams. This is recipe for disaster.

Pakistan needs to mend its way if it wants to survive future shocks and ensure sustainable availability of water. First, work should be done on improving efficiency and governance through a wise policy and implementation plan. Second, there is a need to build dams. It is not a choice, rather necessity.

Dams present multifaceted benefits. They help sustain availability of water for agriculture and industrial use. They help produce cheap electricity and enhance competitiveness of Pakistan. Enhanced storage facility will maintain flow down Kotri. Further, vast potential of agriculture and livestock in Balochistan can be realised.

Decision-making must be supported and led by quality, unbiased and independent scientific research. We must understand there is no development activity without side-effects and our job is to minimise these, as we cannot eliminate them.

Pakistan will have to keep politics out of water sector. It is not happening, as politicians here are “exceptionally good in making any issue political. They lack political wisdom, but will have to solve the problem”. If we continue to walk on this track, it will create chaos beyond our capacity to tackle.