ThinkFest keynote on decision making

LAHORE : The keynote for the season for the Afkar-e-Taza ThinkFest Conversations was delivered by Prof Daniel Kahneman from Princeton University who also won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics.

According to a press release, the bestselling author of ‘Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow,’ was in conversation with Dr Natasha Anwar from Aga Khan University on ‘Decision Making: The Good, the Bad and the Bias.’

Asked by Dr Anwar about why some decisions are quick to make while others hard, Prof Kahneman explained that there were two kinds of decisions. The first was the easy one—the automatic mode ones which were made without thinking. The second was the one which involved thinking and deliberation. He also noted that ‘when tasks are demanding we can only do one at a time,’ and therefore some decisions could not be multi-tasked. Prof Kahneman then explained the work and role of ‘intuition.’ He explained that in most cases we believed in our intuition, but that it was often flawed. ‘Intuition also comes with the feeling of knowing but that too isn’t always accurate,’ noted Prof Kahneman. Explaining it further he noted that intuition expertise required three things: ‘First there should be regularity in the real world which can be learnt. Secondly, there needs to be a lot of opportunities to learn, and thirdly the feedback from the world needs to be clear. When all three conditions are met, intuition is trustworthy.’ Kahneman further noted that ‘often we feel comfortable when only one option comes to mind, but unless it fulfills the three conditions, it does not mean you are right.’

Asked by Dr Anwar as to how to achieve a good decision, Prof Kahneman emphasised that it is certainly not easy. However, he noted that there are ways of knowing that you have arrived at a good decision, based on intuition even where there has been ‘intuition satisfaction.’ ‘At times delaying institution is also a good idea, so that the decision is more reasoned,’ he noted. Prof Kahneman also spoke about ‘confirmation bias’ and how it leads to bad decisions. ‘Confirmation bias leads to mistakes with confidence, and so is very hard to control,’ he said. ‘But the key here is to recognise the moment where such a bias is leading to a wrong decision. For example, we know what a visual illusion is and so do not follow it. We need to do the same when confirmation bias is leading us to a wrong decision,’ he emphasised. Similarly, Prof Kahneman identified polarisation and as important element. ‘Often people in groups reinforce each other’s’ biases, and the result is even more polarization,’ he underscored. ‘Trust is also an important factor in decision making,’ noted Dr Kahneman. ‘We often believe things by people we trust, and then to dismiss even rational things by people we do not like to trust,’ he said. Asked about the effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on decision making by Dr Anwar, Prof Kahneman noted that AI was certainly changing the way in which decisions were being made. ‘Computers are certainly noise free, can have a database no human can achieve, and can create repetitive patterns. Thus, AI can achieve better results.’ ‘In fact, AI is already being used very successfully, from chess to the treatment of breast cancer,’ he concluded.