Difficulties in Pak-India talks

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has to take some important foreign policy decisions linked to peace in Pakistan as 2016 has been declared as the "Year of Peace." As the peace process is about to start with back to back visit of Indian foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and Premier Narendra Modi, the attack on the Indian Air Force airbase in Pathankot has once again alerted about the possible difficulties ahead of the foreign secretary level talk on January 15, if not postponed.  

Nawaz Sharif always has clarity when it comes to peace with India. He wanted to resume dialogue from where he had left in 1999, when former Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Lahore. Some 16 years later Indian hardline premier Narendra Modi surprised many with his two-hour stay in the same city.

The BJP government under Modi had taken a hardline against Pakistan since it came to power but Pakistan's cool response to aggressive Indian tone finally broke the ice in Paris. From two-minute meeting on the sidelines to two hours Lahore "yatra," things were heading in the right direction before the Pathankot incident.

Since both leaders had apprehended difficulties in the process, the reaction to Pathankot was different from Mumbai or earlier attack on the Indian Parliament. 

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif did the right thing by calling Modi and condemning the attack. He also assured the Indian government of full cooperation in investigation, if required. So, what is next?

There is possibility of talks between the foreign secretaries or the National Security Advisers after Bangkok. This time it could be another country to remove some of the stumbling blocks. But, if the scheduled meeting of foreign secretaries was not postponed it would be a way forward and defeat to those who want to derail the peace process.

The BJP leadership has taken pressure both from the opposition Congress to the hawks in the Indian media. This segment of the media had been tested even in Mumbai, but sanity prevailed when Shiv Sena unleashed a wave terror and created an atmosphere of harassment not only for Pakistani artists and players visiting India, but also even on sane voices within the Indian society.

But Premier Sharif also knows that he has to keep his own "house in order." Pakistan has already extended its cooperation in any query. If the responsibility claimed by the Ulema Jihad Council, (UJC) led by Hizbul Mujahideen leader Syed Salauddin for the Pathankot incident proved true, Pakistan must take it seriously. Secondly, if any alleged involvement of outlawed Jaish Mohammad is found with links here that may also require a transparent probe and action.

Pakistan had played a positive role when investigation was required in Mumbai attacks. Indians perhaps acted in haste when they did not give access to Pakistani authorities to prime suspect Ajmal Kasab.

His trial raised many questions but his hanging practically stalled further probe in 26/11. It has also damaged case in Pakistan against the suspected militants facing trial. But, it’s very important that this trial should lead to final conclusion as soon as possible.

Secondly, Pakistan in its own "national interest" needs to review the "jihadi narrative" of "Non-State Actors." It’s a matter of establishing the writ of the state. Can any state allow such groups or leaders to make its foreign policy hostage to their terms and conditions?

Pakistan must remain committed to the cause of Kashmir and prepare a strong case during the "comprehensive dialogue." It is even better if Kashmir be atop the agenda and it is in the interest of both countries to start dialogue with an old dispute.

Pakistan should also continue its support to the indigenous struggle in Kashmir and provide political support to All Parties Hurriyat Conference, a political umbrella organisation of this long struggle.

However, at the same time, the key to Pakistan’s interest would be to declare that no one can give call for any "Jihad" except the state. It’s important that the government should take a firm policy decision, which may not only be in our national interest, but also help the Kashmir cause.

During General Pervez Musharraf’s term, some jihadi and sectarian groups were banned in 2001 and 2002. However, despite declaring them outlawed, no proper action was followed. On the contrary, some new groups were formed. Jaish-e- Mohammad was one such group.

The formation and rise of groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad also need a thorough probe and so is about Maulana Masood Azhar. It came following the split in a more organized jihadi outfit, Harkatul Mujahideen. This split raised a lot of apprehensions within jihadi groups about the Jaish. However, the group practically remained non-active within Pakistan unlike Jamaat-ud-Dawa, which has a huge network of social work too.

The Hizb, on the other hand, is one of the leading Kashmiri groups active in the Indian Held Kashmir but its leader Syed Salahuddin was once suspended by the late Amir of JI Qazi Hussain Ahmad him for making unilateral ceasefire.

The role of Parliament Kashmir Committee is also important. For years, it has failed in debating the issue and also addressing the role of non-state Jihadis. The committee can provide a viable solution to deal with such "non-state actors."

The PM, who has returned after the three-Day visit to Sri-Lanka, has to make few important foreign policy decisions, starting with Pak-Saudi relations in the backdrop of Saudi-Iran relationship. 

Can Pakistan remain neutral and play the role of a mediator during talks with the Saudi foreign minister, who is in Islamabad. His other task will be on four-nation talks on Afghanistan later this month and then to ensure that the foreign secretaries of Pakistan and India meet on January 15 in New Delhi as per schedule during the visit of Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Sawaraj to Islamabad, last month.

All these three issues have a far reaching impact on Pakistan in the coming months, as we aim to make 2016 a "Year of Peace." Any weakness on our part would not only jeopardize the chance of making the year free from terrorism more difficult but could also give "lease" to the dying terror narrative.

The impact of all three issues could affect our internal political situation. Therefore, it is important that the PML-N government and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif take Parliament into confidence.

Pakistan's civil and military leadership has to be on one page on all these three issues and must dispel the impression of any differences. PM Sharif and Army Chief General Raheel Sharif's long overdue meeting could give a good message to all quarters.

In the Indian case, it is Sharif's good luck that unlike in India, the main opposition here has backed the government on holding talks with India. Now, Mr. Sharif can get opposition leaders like Imran Khan, Syed Khursheed Shah, Asfandyar Wali, Dr Farooq Sattar, Sirajul Haq and Maulana Fazlur Rehman and others on board.    

Let’s hope our prime minister will set the tone for making this region free from terror, which is in Pakistan's national interest and remove all hurdles and difficulties. Peace must get a chance, as it is the only option for way forward. 

The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.