Some predictions for 2016

In one his couplets, Mirza Ghalib says that his cup of clay is better than the crystal ball of the legendary Persian king Jamshid, because even if his (Ghalib’s) utensil breaks down, he can always buy another one.

In keeping with this, one can add that one doesn’t need a crystal ball to foretell the future. All we need is to let our imagination take over. Let’s see what this year has in store for the nation’s movers and shakers.

Prediction 1: The government will finally show its teeth and proceed against Lal Masjid’s Maulana Abdul Aziz. The maverick cleric is one person who minces no words in singing out praises of militants – both the Taliban as well as the extremists’ present heartthrob, the Islamic State. From time to time, he passes edicts against army men for having committed the ‘mortal sin’ of fighting terrorists.

The cleric’s moral brigade is frequently involved in vandalism and violence in the name of enforcing Shariah. But the authorities seem to rather ignore such activities, and insist the maulana is a law-abiding citizen. One wonders what the definition of a miscreant is then. In the months to come, though, some significant event will awaken the authorities from their slumber and Maulana Aziz will be brought to the book.

Prediction 2: The new year will see the revival of the PPP. Until very recently the country’s largest and most popular political party with an across-the-nation base, the PPP has been reduced to a regional organisation and is surviving on identity politics. Its top leader, who for five years between 2008 and 2013 held the country’s highest office and was regarded by his supporters as the smartest of the lot (aik Zardari sab per bhari), is pulling the strings of whatever is left of the party from abroad and thinks he is still capable of pulling a rabbit or two out of the hat.

His son Bilawal Bhutto, who officially at least is the party’s head, is optimistic he can cash in on the legacy of his illustrious mother and maternal grandfather by just chanting their names. That said, miracles do happen and it’s likely that the charisma of the young Bhutto and the brinkmanship of his father will together return to the PPP its preeminent position in the polity.

Prediction 3: Imran Khan will withdraw his persistent call for snap polls and patiently wait for the 2018 elections. The man, who more than any other politician is committed to rule of law and justice in society, is the Shahid Afridi of the Pakistan politics. Just as Afridi knows only one way of batting, Khan knows only one way of doing politics – hitting out at the opponent.

Khan is also an enigmatic figure in that he represents a rare blend of a revolutionary and a constitutionalist. A revolutionary is seldom a pacifist. And Khan has been such a confirmed pacifist that to the very end he opposed a military solution to militancy. But the same Khan threatened to personally execute policemen who would dare mess with his party workers during his famous 2014 dharna. Perhaps he has the head of a constitutionalist and the heart of a revolutionary. So far the revolutionary in Khan has got the better of the constitutionalist. But the new year will tip the scales in favour of the latter.

Prediction 4: Prime Minister Sharif will look for and find capable persons outside his family and the Kashmiri clan. The Sharifs, at present the nation’s most powerful dynasty, are known for their consummate managerial skills – in short: getting things done. Like many great kings of yore, they have an eye for talent. The strategy is simple: bring together all the brilliant persons and success will kiss your feet. Not surprisingly, the Sharifs have more mega projects and electoral victories to their credit than any other leader in the polity, past or present.

But the Sharifs have been remarkably selective in the choice of brilliance. They believe genius is tied up with genes. A man or woman to be saddled with such a crucial responsibility must have blue blood in their veins. Such an approach, though pragmatic, is not democratic. So the Sharifs have been under fire from their opponents for maintaining a highly personalised governance style. Being the current standard-bearer of democracy, Pakistan’s first family is likely to be more democratic in the exercise of power.

Prediction 5: The movement of the economy will continue to be on an upward trajectory. Fiscal and trade deficits, tax evasion, losses of mega public-sector enterprises (PSEs), power outages and unemployment will further go down. The tax net will be widened and the share of taxes in the national income will reach double figures. An overwhelmingly majority, if not all, of the parliamentarians as well as big businesses will make their due contribution to the public kitty. The government thus will not have to rely on indirect taxes or borrowing to fill the revenue gap.

The growth in the manufacturing sector will outpace that in real estate. The mushroom growth of legal and illegal housing societies, shopping centres, plazas and marriage halls will come to a halt, which will put curbs on the rent seeking behaviour of the investors. Not only that, the country’s top corporate leaders will be transformed into entrepreneurs. They will go beyond selling semi-manufactures and primary products to investing in value added goods and services.

Prediction 6: The media, particularly its electronic variety, will tone down its sensationalism and appetite for breaking news. In particular, they will show greater maturity in the presentation of current affairs. At the very least, the practice of playing scores Bollywood and Lollywood songs as news soundtracks will be put an end to. The media will also finally realise that they can’t bring a government down or help a political party get power by creating hype in favour of or against politicians.

The writer is a graduate from a western European university.

Email: hussainhzaidi@gmail.com