Geo-economics and national prosperity: The way forward is challenging yet achievable

The world has gone through a series of watershed moments in the last few years, clearly reshaping contemporary politics among nations. The new war theatre between states is the global financial markets and unlike traditional warfare tactics and strategies, nations applying the proxies of commercial contracts to create their monopoly over other competitors. The global pandemic has compelled the state to intervene, in what is traditionally no more its domain, to stave off the worst effects of COVID-19 and unconventional security threats are the new concern for the world. The shift from geopolitics to geo-economics is relatively a new phenomenon that urges us to deliberate beyond the classical geopolitical conception of global power politics.

The structural changes in favour of this shift from geopolitics to geo-economics have left no country unaffected and Pakistan is no exception. Historically speaking, the concept of promoting and safeguarding national interests through economic interdependence and alliance building with like-minded states near and far is not a new thing for Pakistan. The founding father’s vision of Pakistan encompassed the idea of interdependence and peaceful coexistence. In his message to the nation on the occasion of the inauguration of the Pakistan Broadcasting Service on August 15, 1947, M A Jinnah stated: “Our objective should be peace within and peace without.” It indicates that Jinnah envisioned peace as the ultimate solution to all the problems of a newly independent country. He further stated, “We have no aggressive designs against anyone. We stand by the United Nations Charter and will gladly make our contribution to the peace and prosperity of the world.” To materialise his vision Jinnah even proposed a joint defence to the arch-rival India to shun conflict and animosity between the two neighbours. The Constitution of Pakistan in its Article 40 advances Jinnah’s vision of peaceful Pakistan that could, “preserve and strengthen fraternal relations among Muslim countries based on Islamic unity, support the common interests of the peoples of Asia, Africa and Latin America, promote international peace and security, foster goodwill and friendly relations among all nations and encourage the settlement of international disputes by peaceful means.”

The first few years of independent Pakistan were full of turbulence and digression from Jinnah’s vision as the sole focus of the leadership was to project the country as a geostrategically ally of the West to fulfil its major economic and defence needs. Pakistan joined SEATO and Baghdad Pact (later CENTO) in a bid to protect its territorial integrity and strengthen its defence against India. However, joining those alliances opened new avenues of economic cooperation and infrastructure development for Pakistan.

The structural dictates of bipolar order during the Cold War could not break the resolve of Pakistan to connect the world through the common market and cultural bonds. The formation of Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) in 1964 exhibited Pakistan’s idea of development and socio-economic interdependence among Iran, Pakistan and Turkey. RCD provided a platform to forward many infrastructure building projects of road and rail connectivity. RCD became stagnant because of the domestic political and economic turmoil in member states but the expansion of RCD in 1991 enabled broader regional cooperation under the new name Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO).

Pakistan welcomed the initiative of SAARC by South Asian countries’ leadership to promote and facilitate better connectivity and strengthen trade ties in the region. Unfortunately, SAARC couldn’t deliver as per expectations because of India Pakistan rivalries over Kashmir dispute.

Pakistan never stopped protecting and projecting its geopolitical interests in the region throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The unipolar world order along with internal political and economic difficulties set a geopolitical imperative for Pakistan. The first decade of the 21st century didn’t change the situation much as being the coalition partner and front line state in the global ‘War on Terror’ Islamabad had to continue applying the same security parameters to design its foreign policy vis-ˆ-vis near and far neighbours.

The rise of China has changed the situation in favour of countries willing to quit the conventional security paradigm and want to reshape their narrative of security, growth and development. China’s BRI initiative of reviving the historic Silk Road route has provided a new hope of inclusive growth and development for all. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a pilot project of BRI and through this project, Pakistan would be able to avail new opportunities of economic prosperity. The reflection of the new narrative of inclusive growth and development can be seen in Pakistani civil and military leadership’s initiatives toward (seemingly undeclared) zero problem neighbourhood policy. Normalisation of ties with India is one major step towards realising the shift from geopolitics to geo-economics. General Bajwa’s call for “burying the hatchet with India to make peace” reflect the realisation on the part of the strongest stakeholders in security and geopolitics that it’s the time to re-examine the causes of Pakistan’s economic miseries. The normalisation of relations with India can open India’s 1.3 billion strong market for Pakistan’s struggling economy. Imagine a South Asia where India and Pakistan stop spending the big chunk of their budgets on defence and start spending the big share on peoples’ welfare and prosperity.

Prime Minister Imran Khan has also been very keen to promote the changed narrative by taking initiative to facilitate Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and convincing the businesses of their new geo-economic vision for the country. IK’s recent visit to Uzbekistan was also part of the new policy to promote trade and cultural ties with Central Asian republics. Uzbekistan and Pakistan agreed to finalise a preferential trade agreement to increase the bilateral trade and to establish and upgrade the transportation setup like rail links via Afghanistan. Pakistan could be a major transit trade destination for landlocked Central Asia but it is only possible if Islamabad keeps its focus on facilitating connectivity and improving security conditions at home and with neighbouring countries. The importance of a peaceful Afghanistan in this regard is manifold since peace and prosperity in Pakistan is conditioned with peace and prosperity in Afghanistan and that is the real hard task ahead. The US forces’ departure from Kabul, without any permanent solution, has created an uncertain situation in the region. The Ghani government in Kabul is unable to stop the Taliban’s advances. Pakistan needs to be extra vigilant on the Afghanistan front as repeating any past mistake could be fatal for newly defined national interests.

The World Bank Doing Business 2020 report placed Pakistan at 108 which means Pakistan is lagging behind its South Asian neighbours, even Nepal is better ranked in the report. Major reforms in bureaucracy, taxation (to mainstream the informal businesses), sustainable infrastructure development and the energy sector are essential to create an investment friendly environment for domestic and foreign investors. Government should get the Pakistani diaspora onboard and encourage their involvement in the economy. Realising the geo-economics paradigm also depends on the continuity and transparency of political institutions and strict practice of the separation of powers. Extremist tendencies should be mitigated through a chain of reforms in society overall. A progressive, tolerant and civilised societal behaviour can lead the country towards sustainable economic development.

-Dr Sadia Khanum is Assistant Professor of International Relations at Iqra University Islamabad.

She can be reached at sadia.khanum@iqraisb.edu.pk