SPI ticks up as LPG goes dearer

KARACHI: Weekly sensitive price indicator (SPI) increased 0.03 percent week-on-week, and went up 12.20 percent year-on-year during the 7-day period ended July 29, 2021, data showed on Friday.

Inflation report released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed that out of all five expenditure groups, the fifth quintile witnessed WoW increase, while the other four witnessed decline in inflation.

The increase was mainly on account of higher food and LPG prices. It is worth noting the PBS did not issue SPI figures last week.

For those spending up to Rs17,732, SPI was up 15.52 percent YoY and down 0.02 percent WoW. It went down from 162.77 points in last week to 162.73 points during the week under review.

SPI for the consumption groups from Rs17,732-22,888; Rs22,889-29,517; and Rs29,518-44,175 declined 0.09 percent, 0.08 percent, and 0.09 percent, respectively. However, the group spending above Rs44,175 experienced increase of 0.15 percent WoW and 11.73 percent YoY.

Price of LPG cylinder climbed 9.58 percent or Rs172.11 to Rs1,969.05 during the week under review, from Rs1,796.94 in the previous week, and Rs1,282.74 during the same period in 2020. The weight of the commodity in the combined income group stands at 1.437 percent.

The SPI for the week under review was recorded at 150.70 points against 150.65 points registered in the previous week. An increase was recorded in the prices of mainly LPG (9.58 percent), tomatoes (6.64 percent), petrol (4.73 percent), eggs (3.52 percent), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (2.52 percent), onions (2.34 percent), diesel (2.30 percent), vegetable ghee 1kg (1.81 percent), sugar (1.49 percent), and cooking oil (1.23 percent). The joint impact of these commodity prices in overall SPI was 0.76 percent.

Analyst Fahad Rauf of Ismail Iqbal Securities noted that SPI index remained flattish WoW, with chicken continuing to decline due to the Eid-ul-Azha effect.

He revised his CPI estimates up from 8.5 percent for July to 8.8 percent.

“We estimate CPI for July 2021 at 8.8 percent YoY/1.7 percent MoM. The MoM increase would be led by food (mainly perishables), quarterly house rent revision, and increase in petroleum prices,” the note said.

SPI is computed on weekly basis to assess the price movements of essential commodities at shorter interval of time so as to review the price situation in the country.

It comprises of 51 essential items and the prices are collected from 50 markets in 17 cities of the country.

During the week, prices of 23 items increased, 6 decreased, while prices of 22 items remained unchanged.

Items, which recorded decrease in average prices, included chicken (18.35 percent), bananas (1.32 percent), pulse moong (1.32 percent), potatoes (1.23 percent), pulse mash (0.58 percent), and pulse gram (0.06 percent).