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January 6, 2016

Pakistan’s cotton yield to fall 22pc: ICAC

Business

 
January 6, 2016

LAHORE: International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said Pakistan obtained record 812 kilogram per hectare of cotton yield last year, which is likely to decline by 22 percent this year to 637 kg/ha due to high cost of inputs, discouraging farmers from better crop management.

In its monthly review of global cotton, it pointed out that adverse weather, increased pest pressure from whitefly and pink bollworm also contributed to lower cotton yield in the country. It stated that cotton consumption was expected to overtake production in 2015-16.

However, in Pakistan, cotton consumption may decrease by 12 percent to 2.2 million ton. In India the mill use of cotton is expected to increase by 3 percent to 5.5 million ton according to ICAC that also predicts a decline of three percent mill use in China to 7.3 percent.

The statement further reveals that production in the Northern Hemisphere (Asia) is estimated at 20.6 million tons in 2015/16. India’s production of around 6.2 million tons accounts for around 30 percent of production in the Northern Hemisphere. China’s production is estimated at 5.3 million tons, down 19 percent from 2014-15 and 35 percent from the record of 8.1 million tons achieved in 2007-08. In Pakistan production is estimated at 1.7 million tons on an area of 2.7 million hectares.

Cotton plantings for the Southern Hemisphere in 2015-16 seasons started in September 2015 and will continue through the start of 2016. Production in the Southern Hemisphere usually accounts for 8 to 10 percent of total world production, but this share is expected to increase to 11 percent in 2015-16. Despite low international cotton prices, growers in the Southern Hemisphere may increase planted area by 1 percent to 2.9 million hectares. Southern Hemisphere production in 2015-16 is projected down 2 percent to 2.5 million tons.

Cotton area in Australia is projected to more than double to 300,000 hectares, with a greater percentage of cotton being planted on dry land area. Assuming a 27 decrease in the average yield to 1,867 kg/ha, production in Australia is forecasted to increase by 11 percent to 560,000 tons in 2015/16.

Brazil on the other hand is expected to decrease area by 4 percent to 952,000 hectares, and production may reach just below 1.5 million tons. A 13 percent reduction in harvested area in the United States coupled with lower yields due in part to excessive rains in autumn, are expected to lead to a fall in production of 18 percent to 2.9 million tons.

World cotton mill use will likely remain unchanged from 2014-15 at 24.3 million tons. International cotton prices have remained similar to those registered last season, while polyester prices have continued to fall. After decreasingly steadily since 2010-11, China’s mill use was stable at 7.5 million tons in 2014/15.

World stocks at the end of 2015/16 are forecasted to be 20.6 million tons, 58 percent of which will be in China. World imports are projected to decline in 2015-16 by 4 percent to 7.3 million tons. While imports outside of China are forecasted to increase by 6 percent to 6.1 million tons, this rise will not offset the decline in China’s imports, which are expected to decrease by 34 percent to 1.2 million tons.

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