‘Difficult call’ awaits Boris over June 21 unlocking

LONDON: Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a “very difficult” call on whether to drop restrictions on June 21 given the “more negative direction” of the data, according to a leading expert.

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling was instrumental to the UK locking down in March 2020, said a “cautious” approach is needed as the government balances the potential risks against a desire for normality.

He also said that news on the variant first identified in India is not positive as it could be anywhere between 30 per cent and 100 per cent more transmissible than the previously dominant Kent variant, also known as Alpha.

The full effect of easing some restrictions on May 17, such as indoor mixing in pubs, is yet to be understood and further data is required, Prof Ferguson added.

While Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome, said the June reopening “is perhaps the hardest UK policy decision of the last 18 months”.

For the government, Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said there is “nothing at the moment that suggests that we won’t be able to move forward” with the next stage of lifting restrictions on June 21.

Johnson has come under pressure to move ahead with the June 21 unlocking – dubbed “freedom day” by some – given the huge uptake of Covid-19 vaccines in recent months.

But questions remain over the impact of the so-called Indian variant of Covid, also known as the Delta variant, on hospital admissions and deaths.

Dr Farrar said: “With cases and transmission increasing in the UK, and the new Delta variant now dominant, it’s crucial we wait and follow the data over the coming two weeks.”

He added that he is “cautiously optimistic” as the UK vaccine rollout had been a phenomenal success, but cautioned that vaccination rates must be kept up, and to use the time between now and June 21.

Dr Farrar also said the best way to protect the UK from future variants is through global vaccination. Prof Ferguson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We’re certainly getting more data. Unfortunately, I mean, the news is not as positive as I would like on any respect about the Delta variant.”

He added that data is still awaited on how much the Delta variant can evade the immunity which protects people against being admitted to hospital.

Asked about June 21, Prof Ferguson said: “I think the data is pointing this week in a more negative direction than it was last week, so it points towards the direction of being cautious...”