A candid appraisal of civil-military relations

For all intent and purposes, another creative tension is brewing up in the civil-military relations as Prime Minister Imran Khan seems to be hell bent upon prioritising populist narratives over supporting the Pak army's evolving strategic calculus and its domestic imperatives, underpinning national power. Worse, the divergences seem to be on issues falling under the domain of the army because of its expertise in helping determine the country’s direction in strategy, foreign policy and international relations.

The first issue is India. The army, after the backdoor-channel engagement, with India agreed to a detente on the LOC, reducing the low-level conflict that had been raging since the first Modi government took over, causing huge human and material losses. It is now almost several months that the Track 2 dialogue has been going on between India and Pakistan, with some facilitation from the UAE. Putting himself in a tight corner, Prime Minister Imran Khan, in his public speeches, has linked any dialogue with India reversing abrogation of Article 370.

The prime minister’s narrative goes contrary to Pakistan's longstanding narrative that it (IOK’s special status) was India's domestic constitutional and political scheme of things that had no material effect on the disputed status of the IOK – whether article 370 existed or not. Anyway, conditioning any talks with reversing the article 370 means returning to the status quo ante. However, when the LOC detente was in place, the PM approved a summary sanctioning restoration of trade with India as Commerce Minister (since he holds the portfolio of commerce ministry) only to later reverse the decision in the cabinet as a the PM).

Then several statements — no dialogue with India if article 370 is not reversed — created a perception, suggesting as if it is the army desperately seeking a dialogue with India minus the IOK, but it is he (the PM) who is, conversely, seeking Kashmir solution prior to any dialogue, detente and normalisation, hence standing on high moral ground.

His political base loves his narrative, notwithstanding his rhetorical support, his government did not capitalise on post-Article 370 abrogation diplomatic opportunities to meaningfully put India on the back foot. His narrative puts the army in a bad light in the perception domain. Instead of supporting the army's contention to reduce tension with India and cool down the LoC — given the Covid-19 and economic conditions — he has failed to publicly back the army leadership in facing massive challenges. The second issue he made controversial and, by extension, embarrassed the military leadership is the continuation of the GLOC and ALOC agreement with the US. Since the US is about to militarily disengage from Afghanistan while Pakistan's geo-political and strategic interests necessitate continued financial and diplomatic support of the US for the next Afghan government.

Pakistan also wants to pre-empt return of the 1990s scenario when the US abandoned Afghanistan and left Pakistan to fend for itself consequent upon the arrival of terrorism, refugee and instability like spectres. Last, but not least, Pakistan needs a robust engagement with Biden Administration, hedging against any possibility of scapegoating Pakistan for the US failing in Afghanistan. Hence comes the decision of continuation of ALOC and GLOC access to the US, short of giving any basing rights in the country.

Against this backdrop, the prime minister seems to have read this decision as politically damaging for his base to sign up to, given his history of populist campaigning to block NATO supply lines when he was in opposition. He dreads today's opposition potentially capitalizing on the ALOC and GLOC decision, hence he has weaponised this issue.

Coincidently, he is making parallel efforts through the Foreign Office and his NSA Mooed Yousuf to reach out to President Biden, but the Biden admin is speaking to the army chief through Pentagon, State Department and their Chargé de Affairs in Islamabad.

Not long ago, the thaw in Saudi Pakistan relations preceded a worse episode of tension when the prime minister mishandled the strategic partnership by signalling to join a new block, to undermine Saudi geo-political position in the OIC and the emotional outburst of Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qaurashi. Again, the army had to intervene and COAS Gen Qamar Bajwa arranged PM's visit to Saudi Arabia after shuttle diplomacy to calm the seething Saudi government.

Since it is the army that struggles on the thin margins of narratives on strategic issues, it is the civil government that has to work for eliciting public support, and here is the problem — instead of backing the army, the prime minister is carving out a divergent narrative which is only politically convenient to appease his supporters.

Domestically again, a discerning divergence exists in civil military ties. The army really wants — as an anchor of gravity — civilian government and its institutions to deliver in times of grave crises like Covid-19, economy and other spheres of governance. The establishment of wants the inefficient administration of Punjab Chief Minister replaced or reformed, but the prime minister still believes the CM is delivering. This is clearly affecting half of Pakistan's population, thus hurting the establishment.

Other equally concerning issue is over concentration of one province — KP — in the bureaucracy, creating massive anxiety in the highest echelons that is negatively affecting the statecraft.

While Imran Khan opposes the establishment on the prospect of any other fall-back political option — Shahbaz Sharif card — he also abhors if there is any communication with PPP or any relief to opposition which PM believes to be against his accountability drive which may not be necessarily patched up. Here again, different interpretations by the prime minister are conspicuous pointing to a creative tension with the establishment. Without sounding alarmist, in all probability, the civil-military relations are destined for a rough ride.

(Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a politician from Balochistan, and former adviser to the Balochistan government on media and strategic communication. He remained associated with BBC World Service. He is also Chairman of Centre for Geo-Politics & Balochistan. He tweets @Jan_Achakzai)