World Bank, ADB advise Pakistan to shield against ‘extreme climate events’

KARACHI: Pakistan needs to increase investment on research and focus infrastructure development considering the country’s vulnerability to the impact of extreme climate events, said a report by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank

Pakistan faces rates of warming considerably above the global average with a potential rise of 1.3°C–4.9°C by the 2090s over the 1986–2005 baseline, according to the report, a part of series on climate risk country profiles. Of an estimated $1.3 billion of average annual losses to natural hazards, around 75 percent are attributable to floods in Pakistan, according to the report, citing a conservative estimate.

“Pakistan needs to have access to better risk information for better targeting of mitigation investments. It also needs to have a mechanism for communicating risk information through the creation of multi-hazard early warning systems going down to the community levels to better warn the vulnerable communities for improved preparedness,” it said. “Further research is needed to provide greater certainty around future water resource trends.”

The report said climate change will influence food production via direct and indirect effects on crop growth processes. Direct effects include alterations to carbon dioxide availability, precipitation and temperatures. Indirect effects include impacts on water resource availability and seasonality, soil organic matter transformation, soil erosion, changes in pest and disease profiles, the arrival of invasive species, and decline in arable areas due to the submergence of coastal lands and desertification. On an international level, these impacts are expected to damage key staple crop yields, even on lower emissions pathways.

“The impact of extreme climate events on the agricultural sector in Pakistan can be very significant, raising concerns regarding any increase in their frequency attributed to climate change,” said the report.

Floods inundate fertile land, kill livestock, destroy standing crops, and reduce or eliminate yields. This was demonstrated in the major flood of 2010, during which an estimated 2.4 million hectares of unharvested crops were lost, worth approximately $5.1 billion. Droughts can be equally devastating to rural livelihoods. From 1999–2002, droughts in the Sindh and Baluchistan provinces killed two million livestock and necessitated emergency relief to provide drinking water and food aid to farming communities. Even minimal changes in precipitation patterns over prolonged periods can alter the country’s food production by placing greater pressure on the water resources the country’s irrigation network depends on.

ADB has suggested particular challenges related to cooling nuclear and thermal power plants which may reduce their efficiency. The energy system is also vulnerable to the effects of extreme climate events, which are expected to intensify under climate change. The effects of temperature rises and heat stress in urban areas are increasingly compounded by the phenomenon of Urban Heat Island, which has been documented in urban conurbations around the world.

Under country partnership strategy program, ADB will combine reforms and investments with assistance in building livable cities that are green, resilient, inclusive, and competitive. It will maintain its support for building the resilience of communities and infrastructure to climate change and for strengthening climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. It will assist the government in enhancing disaster resilience through instruments to finance disaster risk reduction and preparedness for health emergencies. The bank can support investment in water conservation, modernize current/traditional irrigation networks and install high efficiency irrigation systems in water-scarce areas.