The Tapi talks

After two decades of talk, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (Tapi) gas pipeline has finally gotten off the ground. The formal launching ceremony, held on Sunday in south-eastern Turkmenistan, was symbolically important as it brought together the presidents of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, the Indian vice-president and the Pakistani prime minister. The project was first proposed 25 years ago but has long suffered delays associated with the complex geopolitics of the region. Turkmenistan has always been willing to provide access to its rich gas fields to the other three partners – but Pakistan, Afghanistan and India have not had the best of relationships for a sustained period. Turkmenistan wants to reduce its dependence on China for gas exports. The Tapi inauguration has come at a mixed time in relations between the three countries; they have been trying to normalise relations the past few weeks. The $10 billion pipeline will be critical to ensuring that the energy shortfalls in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India will be met in the medium-term future.

The ADP-supported project has certainly required incredible patience on the part of all stakeholders. Links between Central Asia and South Asia had been proposed after the collapse of the Soviet Union but the political will has never been there to push the Tapi pipeline through. In this sense, the political will shown by the current governments of the four countries must be commended. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has made a point of offering Central Asian countries access to the trade links being built with China. The Tapi pipeline joins the list of CAP-1000 and the CPEC as part of building regional trade links running through Pakistan. The pipeline is set to be completed by December 2019 and will have a capacity of 33 billion cubic metres. Apart from the economic benefits of the pipeline, there will be a significant diplomatic impact. The building of trade links between the countries will increase their interdependence, opening up the path for greater regional cooperation and peace. Low energy prices at the moment make the project worthwhile for all partners. But there are still major risks attached with the project, which is yet to announce a foreign commercial partner to finance the project and runs all kinds of risks because it will go through a war-stricken Afghanistan. The inauguration of the Tapi pipeline by no means guarantees that it will be completed which is why we must curb our enthusiasm. Four years is an eternity in the tense diplomatic and security relations of the region. The will displayed to kick the project off will be needed to get the project completed.