Alarms ring on likelihood of another wheat crisis

LAHORE: The federal government’s flawed wheat production estimate of 26.78 million tons for 2020-21 would likely bring the country on the verge of yet another grain crisis this year, experts told The News.

The faulty estimation would likely slash grain output by 1.5 million tons against the consolidated yearly requirements. The most worrying thing in this regard has been the fact that the Federal Ministry of National Food Security and Research has given no explanation for the fixation of national wheat production target on the lower side, both against last year’s target as well as yearly grain demand for 2021-22.

Despite continuous interaction and repeated reminders for more than a couple of months, the ministry failed to justify why it forecasted a lower target which was insufficient to meet the food requirement of the country.

Even if wheat production target fixed by the federal government is achieved, Pakistan is said to be short of its yearly requirements by about up to 1.5 million tons during 2020-2021. According to an estimate, Pakistan should produce around 28 million tons to take care of round the year requirement of the population coupled with having 1.2 to 1.5 million tons strategic reserves.

It is strange that PTI-government came up with lower wheat output target for current season if compared with last year’s goal. Against production target of 27.03 million tons for the Rabi year 2019-20, the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA), chaired by Food Security Minister, fixed wheat production target for Rabi 2020-21 at 26.78 million tons without considering total grain consumption as well as yearly increase in volume of output.

This low aim has been pitched despite having negligible gains carryover stock and persistent shortage of wheat coupled with unprecedented spiralling prices that have already been costing the consumers badly. It may be noted that wheat production set by Federal Ministry of Food Security in 2018-19 was 26.46 million tons.

“When it comes to meeting food needs, aiming low is not less than a crime especially when it is done by policy makers,” said an agriculture and food expert while commenting on low wheat production target set for the ongoing season. He added that it was “like playing with the lives of masses”.

“In my view, aiming low mostly sets us up for failure or below par achievements. To be lenient gives us too much complacency and doesn’t allow us to pull socks and follow a proactive approach in achieving goals,” the expert added.

The relatively low wheat production estimate has also been contrary to yearly grain demand of 26.8 million tons, which is calculated on the basis of moderate figure of 120kg per capita yearly grain requirement.

According to international institutions, Pakistan’s per capita wheat consumption stood at 124-125kg per annum. However, as per other estimates, it ranges between 115kg to 125kg per capita per year.

Moreover, apart from the yearly requirement, about 1.5 to 1.7 million tons of wheat is needed to have strategic reserves of grains plus catering for wheat and its products flooding the supply chain.

Wheat being main component of daily food intake plays a vital role in quenching hunger, he observed. Amid Covid-19 pandemic, food security seriously got a hit due to lack of proper availability of grains as well as lack of affordability among the masses. He opined that as more consumers dug deeper into their pockets after food budget ballooned beyond what they had planned, stomachs began going empty due to government’s failure in properly assessing grain needs.

It may be mentioned here that wheat is Pakistan’s dietary staple. Wheat flour currently contributes 72 percent of Pakistan’s daily caloric intake, satisfying hunger for most of population, especially living below poverty line.