Aiming for peace

The Afghanistan peace process appears to be stuck in a place from which it is very difficult to salvage it. While on the one hand, the Taliban say that agreements made to them have not been fully honoured, and that militias continue their attacks on them, the US uncertainty over whether it will comply with an agreement signed with the Trump government to pull out all troops by May 1 is now under doubt after President Joe Biden said he was considering the situation. The problem is that if the US pulls out, Afghanistan will once again be left in the lurch and with the potential of chaos hanging in the distance, as has happened before during the Mujahideen period. If on the other hand, the US does pull out, the Taliban could overrun the country and create a huge amount of mayhem. It is extremely difficult to find a solution which would please all parties in what has become one of the world's most complex problems.

The only positive sign is that during talks in Moscow held recently with the US, China, Russia and Pakistan, as well as representatives of the Taliban and the Kabul government, all taking part, there was a consensus that Afghanistan needs peace. The problem now is to work out how this peace is to be achieved. There is concern among stakeholders that as spring draws in, the Taliban may resume their offensive in the country, especially as they hold the upper hand over the Afghan government. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has recently attempted to shore up security in his country with changes in the defence and interior ministries. But it is difficult to say to what extent this will work given the difficulties Afghanistan faces. Pakistan is also caught up in the middle of this torrent of troubles, with the Taliban in Pakistan also acting up once again.

To make things even more complicated, the Afghan Taliban have not said precisely what their vision for Afghanistan is. They speak of abiding by Islamic injunctions, but do not say exactly how they interpret these. They have also mentioned that girls will be allowed to go to school, and women will be able to work. Certainly, we hope this is true. But promises made by the Taliban, as well as other players involved in Afghanistan, have been broken in the past and this is one of the key reasons why the country today faces so much chaos and why the shaky peace effort between the US and the Taliban brought such limited results, despite round after round of talks in Doha and other places.