Pakistan’s ‘Covid-21’

The new year arrives in Pakistan on Friday, promising to bring more than just the usual set of challenges coupled with fewer than expected opportunities for the time being.

For the foreseeable future, Pakistan’s outlook will remain closely tied to the world’s worst pandemic in decades. The continuing attack by Covid-19 from country to country and the discovery of a new and deadlier strain in a growing number of countries, presents a major challenge with unpredictable consequences.

Even if Pakistan avoids falling directly in the line of fire of the new strain, the country’s future will be surrounded by the fallout from the dark clouds gathered over the horizon. At the very least, a further deterioration in an already strained global economic outlook will unleash the fallout that is certain to engulf countries like Pakistan.

Moreover, a succession of policy failures along with a failure to focus on the most pressing challenges under Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government together have already raised doubts over Pakistan’s economic outlook getting anywhere close to a robust recovery. Notwithstanding the self proclaimed kudos by the present government proclaiming Pakistan’s economy emerging out of the woods, the contrary remains true.

Besides, Pakistan’s continuing political polarization unleashed by the activism of the opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement or PDM, is set to deepen what appears to be increasing uncertainty. This is set to continue weakening Pakistan’s economy, politics and other key elements necessary for the country’s overall stabilization.

Meanwhile, Imran Khan remains in the unenvious position of serving as prime minister of Pakistan at a time when his government faces more challenges than any of its predecessors. Settling the country’s increasingly acrimonious politics, reviving the economy and tackling the fallout from Covid-19 on a daily basis together presents a formidable crisis for any ruler.

And while some relatively positive trends have emerged on Pakistan’s ability to tackle Covid-19, its much too early to predict an all-encompassing success. Given the unpredictable nature of this beast, it would be far from wise to claim success let alone victory. As before, the prime minister’s victory claim repeated from time to time may not necessarily be the right course in the face of this deadly pandemic which haunts the world as no other ailment has done before.

As Pakistan remains locked in the recurring eye of the storm, the government’s ability to manage the country’s politics and its economy leaves room for doubt. An unending confrontation with the opposition through an open-ended pursuit of corruption has badly exposed prevailing double standards. Individuals around Prime Minister Khan liable for corruption related investigations appear to have been treated less harshly than his opponents.

The track record of NAB – the main anti graft watchdog – has also had a pernicious effect on Pakistan’s business environment, with individuals targeted having shared accounts of investigations that will likely fall flat in any truly democratic society. NAB’s work has already harmed Pakistan’s investment climate at a crucial time in the country’s history, dogged by a variety of economic weaknesses. Many Pakistanis proudly remember the 1960s when Pakistan’s economy was heading in a transitional phase for the better. But it is equally true that the existence of a body similar to NAB in the 1960s would have easily killed that short-lived period of economic transformation.

At the same time, ministers in the Khan government eagerly claim one economic success after another. In doing so, they grasp on selective trends such as an improvement in Pakistan’s current account deficit or some improvement in prices of one essential commodity or another. But the prime minister and his economic team have failed to appreciate that a sustainable recovery cannot be claimed unless its fruits are shared by Pakistan’s average households. Irrespective of how far the opposition can dent the ruling structure, the gap between official claims and the reality across Pakistan’s grassroots presents the biggest challenge confronting the country.

As Pakistan enters 2021, the country’s ability to tackle these mighty challenges along with the unpredictability surrounding the pandemic must raise a compelling question: has Pakistan entered ‘Covid-21’ in view of the multiple challenges surrounding the country with few resolutions in close sight?

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs.

Email: farhanbokhari@gmail.com