No herd immunity as yet: Experts explain why number of Covid-19 patients, deaths have plummeted

ISLAMABAD: On phenomenal drop in the number of Covid-19 patients and deaths in Pakistan, renowned experts believed that it was not the result of herd immunity in Pakistan as some people say. They said that the death ratio was too high in case of herd immunity, which comes only when 70/80 percent people are struck by this kind of disease.

“I can’t give any plausible reason for drastic reduction in the number of coronavirus patients and deaths in Pakistan. Scientists are working on this question worldwide. Anybody who talks about the precise cause for the lessening of the severity of the disease is telling a lie,” eminent Prof. Dr Saeed Akhtar told The News.

Distinguished professor Dr Ataur Rehman, however, listed causes for decrease in these numbers. But both opined that the “smart lockdown” did work in controlling the pandemic in Pakistan.

Dr Saeed Akhtar felt that Allah Almighty has been very kind to Pakistan as it was confronted with the pandemic. “But nobody understands why there is a significant drop in the number of Covid-19 patients and deaths.”

Both professors cautioned that utmost care and stipulated Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) must be implemented during Eidul Azha and Muharramul Haram otherwise a situation similar to the post-Eidul Fitr would hit Pakistan when the pandemic had spread at a fast pace.

Dr Saeed Akhtar said back in 2002 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) created havoc in the world and the death rate was 30pc. But this virus disappeared after sometime. He said that some countries including Vietnam and Taiwan learnt a great lesson from this epidemic that they showed when the present pandemic gripped the world. The result is that Vietnam and Taiwan controlled the scourge unprecedentedly compared to all countries of the globe. They enforced strictest lockdowns.

Then, the professor said, the MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) brought about disaster in the Middle East with the death ratio being 39pc. It originated from camel. “I earnestly appeal to the people to observe the SOPs during Eidul Azha and Muharram. It is really frightening to see people without masks in cattle markets to buy sacrificial animals,” he said and opined that 80 percent of the pandemic can be controlled by wearing the masks. This is the best prevention in the absence of a vaccine. Dr Saeed Akhtar was of the view that a heavy price would have to be paid without a vaccine in case of herd immunity.

Prof. Ataur Rehman said the scourge peak in Pakistan came in June as against other predictions. After that it started coming down. It is not correct that testing has been cut down but the fact is that people are less forthcoming in getting themselves tested. He estimated that there was almost one-third fall in the number of virus cases and death now compared to June. The figures of patients can be manipulated and concealed but the deaths can’t be, he said and added that the situation was much improved now.

However, the professor said that conditions in Sindh are still unsatisfactory as against Punjab keeping in view the population of the two provinces. He said it always happens across the globe that such a disease touches the peak and then it drops.

Dr Ataur Rehman enumerated the reasons behind the diminishing of the number of Covid-19 patients and death ratio. One is the smart lockdown, which was enforced exactly as the previous Punjab government had dealt with dengue. IT expert Dr Umar Saif, he said, had identified places which needed to be focused in controlling the spread of this disease through spraying and other measures. Thus, the operation to curb the disease was targeted.

The professor said the second reason is the resistance and immunity that South Asians have developed because of pollution and other causes. He said that the present pandemic is not as disturbing in this region as compared to the US and Europe where the immunity is too low.

The professor said the blacks, Pakistanis and Indians are great victims of Covid-19 in America because they have less immunity. Another reason behind decline in the coronavirus patients and deaths in Pakistan, Dr Ataur Rehman said, is BCG vaccination that is done during childhood in Pakistan although it is not proven with certainty.

According to him, yet another reason is the mutation of virus that his research centre working at the Karachi University has noticed. This, he said, also can’t be stated with sureness.