290,000 persons in ICT affected by infection: survey

Islamabad:Preliminary analysis of a sero-epidemiological survey conducted in Islamabad to determine the extent of COVID-19 infection in the general population shows Covid-19 prevalence of 14.5 per 100 population.

As for area-wise distribution of the disease, rural union councils are more affected. Out of all Union Councils, Chattar was found to be most affected, followed by Union Councils Muhrian and Tarlai Khurd. Considering age, the most affected group was 41-50 years, followed by 31-40 years and 51-60 years. RT-PCR positivity rate was found to be 17%.

The results of the survey show that the calculated prevalence of Covid-19 in ICT is 14.5%, which translates to 290,000 individuals who have been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and have developed the immunoglobulins against the virus. This should be seen in the context that a vast majority of the individuals already exposed to the virus are asymptomatic and therefore escape detection. This was one of the objectives of this survey—to uncover the hidden/already exposed individuals in communities and to emphasize that these must not be taken as new cases/patients.

The cross-sectional survey was conducted between June 1 and June 25, 2020. The geographic scope of the survey was limited to the Islamabad Capital Territory ICT. Equal representation from the rural and urban areas was ensured.

Applying the stratified systematic random sampling using probability proportionate to size technique, a sample of 4,328 was calculated. A structured, pretested questionnaire was used to gather demographic, clinical, exposure, and risk factor data from the community. Blood samples were collected from each participant and tested for immunoglobulins against SARS-CoV-2 on Chemi-luminescence. Throat/nasopharyngeal swabs were also collected from those having symptoms or contact history with a positive case for PCR testing. All samples were tested at the Virology laboratory at the National Institute of Health.

An enhanced surveillance strategy that focuses on population-based methods is mandatory to understand the actual situation of Covid-19 and then to successfully control the pandemic.