‘Coronavirus pandemic to bring about new world order out of necessity’

Islamabad: The coronavirus pandemic will out of necessity give rise to a new world order based on the review of policies and strategies, and reorientation of survival concepts and doctrines, said security analyst Brigadier (r) Said Nazeer Mohmand.

“Pakistan cannot afford to remain oblivious to this transformation and will have to align itself with the altering world and swiftly change the business as usual model to business for the future,” he told an Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) webinar on ‘Emerging Trends in Strategic Arena and Pakistan’.

The event, which was jointly chaired by former finance secretary Dr Waqar Masood Khan and IPS executive president Khalid Rahman also had former ambassador Tajammul Altaf and former water and power secretary Mirza Hamid Hasan as participants.

Brigadier (r) Said Nazeer declared COVID-19 a non-state actor and said it could be man-made or natural.

“Such episodes will keep reoccurring in future, so it is essential for Pakistan to learn from the experiences and response potential of other nations and formulate strategies according to its own environment,” he said.

Outlining response options and strategic plans, the analyst said care, cure and preservation of human life should be prioritised by carving out new health strategies with intense budget allocations.

He added that research centres, indigenisation of medicines and electro-medical equipment, and naturalisation of medical facilities should be strategic health undertakings that should be Pakistan's top priority.

“The country must be well-equipped to detect and stop such threats. For this, the National Disaster Management Authority has to be more potent and broad-based,” he said. Brigadier (r) Said Nazeer said it had been seen that big administrative units like provinces were not very viable, active or responsive in dealing with such crises.

He said small units or administrative pockets were more practical and had a more targeted approach. “There should be a blend of technocrats, experts, politicians and bureaucrats to manage the situation so that a single decision-making body does not prevail during such crisis,” he said.

The analyst recommended demographic surveys to determine strategies for the social sectors, urban and rural planning, administrative arrangements and crisis management both at the micro and macro level.

He also said threat profiling should be conducted to devise strategies for targeted approach and disaster management and resource allocation. “The industrial base should be re-oriented so that the industries could be adaptable and serve dual or triple purposes. This will entail making it technically viable to switch their output from one production to another according to the need of the time such as the current pandemic,” he said.

Regarding agro-based economy, Brigadier (r) Said Nazeer stressed the need for using barren lands and deserts for agriculture and said the agro-based industry should be expanded for food security processing and preservation.

He said the government should provide an opportunity through seminars to thethink tanks to better present their research and studies to the decision makers so that these could be collated and policy parameters and guidelines could be formulated.

“This is particularly important because in the future there will be new curriculum while research and healthcare will get top priority,” he said. The analyst opined that Pakistan’s orientation should now move towards welfare instead of a security state. This is because the facets of war have changed a lot in the form of cyber, hybrid and propaganda wars.

He said security dynamics were changing from the physical and ideological to the subtler, soft and porous frontiers of hybrid, microbiological and human chain reactions. “It would be a folly if the country does not prepare for attacks from this dimension. Unless there is threat perception the government will not be able to create proper response potential and gain the required tools to neutralize such threats. At the same time, the country has to evolve strategies so that it would have policy options when faced with such threats,” he said.

The expert said future strategies and doctrines would be reshaped to fight short, intense and multi-directional limited wars for which smart, agile and small armies would be required. “All this will not require huge logistics stamina, so defence spending will automatically be reduced,” he said.

Brigadier (r) Said Nazeer said as such, Pakistan’s strategic direction should be of unconventional deterrence for war avoidance.

“This deterrence should be forward poised and should be anchored in positioning obstacles along the borders, especially with India, rather than men and tools of war. This will also force India to hike its military spending to counter the obstacle-based and multiple defensive lines,” he said.

The expert suggested incorporating a high-tech, agile and small standing army with skill-based reserves for fighting calamities such as coronavirus. He called for the establishment of a global regime under UN auspices for a joint fight against the COVID-19 pandemic in an effective and forceful manner.

“The country which invests more in research, protective measures, human tools and expertise against coronavirus will be able to survive in any future crisis,” he said. The analyst said a major human violation and tragedy was happening in India and Israel in the form of Muslim-centric lockdowns, so Pakistan should develop a proper narrative to highlight the lockdown in the occupied Kashmir and show its various facets to the world.

He warned that India might engage in some misadventure because a limited war is an option for that country. Former ambassador Tajammul Altaf said the healthcare systems of the developed and developing countries were unable to sustain the enormous pressure caused by the pandemic. He said countries should change their priority from defence and warfare to the welfare of the people.

Former secretary Mirza Hamid stressed the need for greater coordination and integration to face multi-dimensional attacks. “This is essential as scientific and technological sectors such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare and robotics will become more important than physical resources in future,” he said.