Which way will MQM go?

In an unusual political development within days after both government and opposition came on ‘one page,’ the convener of MQM-Pakistan and the Federal Minister Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui quit the federal government as mark of protest as the first step towards leaving the PTI's coalition government as the PPP led Sindh government decided to follow the policy of 'wait and see.'

MQM will await for few days the response from the federal government and Prime Minister Imran Khan before going to the next move i.e. to leave the coalition and sit in opposition. If they said, they may be approached by PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who had recently made an offer to MQM to join Sindh government on the condition of leaving the federal government.

Interestingly, the high profile Federal Law Minister Farog Nasim stayed back and even within MQM, there were reservations about him from the day he was elected as Senator. But, if the MQM decided to sit on the opposition benches it would be difficult for him to remain in the federal government.

Governor Sindh Imran Ismail in his immediate reaction told me, ‘everything was fine when we last met during the Prime Minister Imran Khan's visit to Karachi followed by meeting with 'Karachi recovery committee,' headed by Federal Minister Asad Umar. I believe MQM leadership is facing pressure from within the party for not doing much and we understand that and are trying to address their grievances, he added.

Sources said, beside development funds MQM also wants one more Ministry as they don't consider Farog Nasim's allocation on their 'quota.'

Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, in his hard hitting press conference in the presence of senior parties leaders including Aamir Khan, Mrs Nasreen Jalil, Mohammad Hussain and others minus law minister, lashed out at federal government from backed out its commitment under the two agreements signed between them, one at Banigala and other at Bahadurabad.

However, despite harsh tone the MQM leader kept the option open for the government as he clearly pointed out that the party would not be a party to play any negative role in any move to oust the prime minister but, warned it would not remain silent for long.

Chairman of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Bilawal Bhutto Zardari may be too young but in a smart move recently he had shaken Prime Minister Imran Khan, when he offered Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM) to quit Centre and joined Sindh government. The 'offer' forced prime minister to send his special team to Karachi to address serious grievances of his ally.

With history of 'distrust' between PPP and MQM, it would be interesting to see how Bilawal initiates the dialogue with the latter through some confidence building measures.

MQM and PTI also have a bitter past and the former believed that its mandate had been 'stolen' while the latter blamed the former for losing Karachi, because of its past politics of violence and terror. But, the new look MQM-Pakistan, which after 2016, had distanced itself with MQM, London and its founder Altaf Hussain too had its own problems. It is no more and organised and disciplined Unit, it used to be in the past. The formation of Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) comprising former MQM leaders like Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani and another faction led by former mayor, Dr Farooq Sattar has further weaken the party.

Yet, politics is the game of possible and the changing political scenario has once again brought MQM in the limelight in view of the political standing of the PTI government at the Centre.

Though, prime minister and PTI leaders are confident that the government is not facing any such crises of losing the major party in the National Assembly, they also knew about the ongoing 'conspiracies' and attempts against the government. Thus, they see the present move of Bilawal Bhutto as the first attempt.

Prime minister's team, headed by Federal Minister Asad Umar and also includes another Minister Ali Zaidi, rushed to Karachi and held meeting at Governor House and met MQM leaders as well. This will be followed by the visit of a key party leader, Jahangir Tareen early this week as decided in a telephonic conversation with MQM convener Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui.

What JT will do now after Siddiqui announced his resignation and above all what prime minister will do.

Thus, we may see hectic political activities in Karachi and Islamabad in the next few days and a high powered delegation of MQM would also meet prime minister, they have also agreed to meet the PPP leadership provided they come with proper proposal.

Now, whether PPP or Bilawal Bhutto, would go further beyond the initial offer of accommodating MQM in Sindh government if they quit the PTI government at the Centre or not would depend on how what more he will offer to urban based party. MQM-Pakistan decided not to take any decision in haste and secondly, they knew that leaving the coalition would not be easy for them for reasons other than political.

Some of its demands to the federal government had been 'veto' by the powerful quarters like re-opening and return of its 'Sector and Unit offices,' release of number of their 'missing activists.'

MQM believed that they have not yet given the space enough to carry its political activities beyond certain limits, which perhaps, neither PTI nor PPP's governments would be able to address.

Within MQM there is a difference of opinion whether to stay with federal government and get their demands accepted and implemented or to get better deal with Sindh government particularly if its agreed on amending the Sindh Local Government, Act, 2013 as local bodies elections are due later, this year.

However, they have a consensus that PTI has not fulfilled its commitment made after 2018 elections. PTI, which practically swept 2018 polls in Karachi, by winning 14 NA seats including the prize seat of Lyari and that too against Bilawal Bhutto and now have its own leader of the opposition in Sindh Assembly, has not yet performed well even at the constituencies’ level. Besides, the party internally divided into three major groups.

Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has recently met some of party MNAs from Karachi, assured them that their grievances would be addressed soon.

At the same time, the MQM believes that its mandate in Karachi had been 'stolen' as it shrank from 18 seats in 2013 to six in 2018. In the last elections it blamed non-political forces for alleged manipulation in the elections.

In the present scenario MQM would certainly like Sindh government to amend the Sindh Local Government Act and increased powers of the mayor and chairman while they expect federal government to fulfil the promises which the prime minister had made in a written agreement after 2018 elections.

While prime minister is confident that MQM won't leave the federal government, a more serious offer beyond ministries from Bilawal could create further problems for the PTI government at the Centre as its another alley in Sindh the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) which has also warned of leaving the federal government.

MQM may stay with the PTI's federal government unless Bilawal Bhutto comes out with a 'surprise package,' but, this time they want Prime Minister Imran Khan to do something practical and implement the accord.

Whether they stay with PTI or joined Sindh government one thing is certain that MQM-Pakistan can't afford another break up as they are fast losing support of not doing much while PPP-led Sindh government intends to complete at least 12 major projects in Karachi alone in 2020 in a bid to win over Karachiites.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, Jang and The News

Twitter: @Machar.AbbasGEO