As Pak Army voluntarily slashes down its budget, its Indian counterpart gets 8pc hike

LAHORE: At a time when, according to April 29, 2019 report of the globally-renowned think-tank “Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)”, the total world military expenditure has surged to $1,822 billion in 2018, Pakistan Army’s gesture of voluntarily slashing down its defence budget of Rs 1,100 billion or just over $7.43 billion in today’s worsened rupee-dollar parity for the next fiscal is certainly a commendable step, which has left many of its critics, supporters and even its worst foes equally startled because it is a rarity.

Having directly governed the country for more than half of its post-independence history, this is the first-ever time that the Pakistani Army, has taken a decision such as this, winning praise for country’s head of government instantly.

Imran Khan had commented on Twitter a few days ago that Pakistan Army had agreed upon budget cuts despite “multiple security challenges”, stating that the money saved would be diverted to aid the development of the merged tribal areas and Balochistan. He had appreciated Pakistan military’s initiative, dubbing it “unprecedented”.

Meanwhile, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistani military’s media wing had stated in a later tweet that the cuts would not be at the cost of defence and security, viewing that it was important for the military to participate in the rebuilding of Balochistan and the erstwhile tribal areas.

In his tweet, Maj-Gen Asif Ghafoor, Director General of Inter Services Public Relations (DG ISPR), had recently said, “Indian fake media busy spinning on our internal defence budgeting choice. Don’t forget, we were the same forces with same budget on 27 February, 20 19. We have the capability and capacity to respond. Remember, it’s not budgeting, it’s resolve of force and the nation firmly standing behind its forces.”

Earlier, Chief of Army Staff Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa said “Irrespective of the voluntary cut in defence budget for the coming financial year, there shall be no impact on our response potential to all types of threat and quality of life of the soldiers. The no pay raise decision is also only for the officers and not for the soldiers. We shall manage the shortfall during the coming fiscal by tightening our belt in areas where it doesn’t affect the two aforesaid aspects.”

On the other hand, the Indian defence budget stands at US$ 42.7 billion.

The interim Union Budget 2019-20, presented in the Indian Parliament on February 1, 2019, had allocated $60.9 billion to the country’s Ministry of Defence, which has to pay pensions to retired servicemen and incur other civil expenditures.

Accounting for 86 per cent of total uniformed Indian personnel (1.4 million as of 2017), the bulk of the country’s defence budget is spent on Pay and Allowances (P&A). In the 2019-20 budget, the Army’s P&A accounts for 69 per cent of its revenue budget.

The Indian Army’s predominant share in the defence budget is due to its overwhelming numerical superiority.

(Source: A February 4, 2019 article appearing on the website of the Indian Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis)

In its interim Union Budget 2019-20, presented in the Parliament on February 1, 2019. The Indian Ministry of Defence was dished out $60.9 billion.

Though the interim allocation may change in the regular Indian budget to be presented by the re-elected Narendra Modi government, it nonetheless provided a broad direction of the likely spending.

In April 2018, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi-led PML-N government had proposed to spike allocation for defence by a whopping 18 per cent to Rs1.1 trillion (approximately $9.6 billion at that time) for fiscal 2018-19 from the original estimate of Rs920 billion in 2017-18.

The increase had represented the highest growth in defence budget in over a decade, as the allocation was 10.22 per cent greater than the revised estimate of Rs998 million for 2017-18.

However, the PML-N government had categorically stated last year: “The increase is consistent with the rate of 20 per cent at which the current expense is estimated to grow next financial year.”

Interestingly, in February 2019, the incumbent Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf government in Pakistan had decided not to make any cuts in the country’s defence budget for the ongoing year. The-then Information Minister, Fawad Chaudhry, had commented: “The country’s defence budget is already low as compared to other states in the region, and therefore it should be increased. We want to increase our defence and security; therefore, we need to increase our defence budget and for that purpose we want to generate more revenue.”

A comparison of the two nuclear rivals vis a vis their military expenditures:

The 53-year old SIPRI’s recent report had maintained: “Pakistan’s military spending increased by 73 per cent between 2009 and 2018, and by 11 per cent between 2017 and 2018. In 2018, Pakistan’s military expenditure was $11.4 billion, making it the 20th-largest spender globally. Pakistan is among the top 10 countries with the highest military burden. A state's military expenditure as a share of GDP - also known as the military burden - is the simplest measure of the relative economic burden the military places on that state.”

This Sweden-based international institute, dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament had gone on to write: “Pakistan’s military burden in 2018 was 4.0 per cent of GDP - the highest level since 2004. Six of the 10 countries with the highest military burden in the world in 2018 are in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia (8.8 per cent of GDP), Oman (8.2 per cent), Kuwait (5.1 per cent), Lebanon (5.0 per cent), Jordan (4.7 per cent) and Israel (4.3 per cent). The other four are Algeria (5.3 per cent), Armenia (4.8 per cent), Pakistan (4.0 per cent) and Russia (3.9 per cent).”

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute report had underlined: “Pakistan’s regional rival, India, was among the five biggest military spenders in 2018. “The five biggest spenders in 2018 were the United States, China, Saudi Arabia, India and France, which together accounted for 60 per cent of global military spending. Russia was the sixth-largest spender in 2018. India's military spending rose in 2018 for the fifth consecutive year and was 3.1 per cent higher than in 2017. At $66.5 billion, India’s spending was 29 per cent higher in 2009. Despite this rise, India’s military burden in 2018 was at one of its lowest levels since the early 1960s: 2.4 per cent of GDP compared with 2.9 per cent in 2009.”

Pakistan is the Ninth largest importer of major weapons in the world, but the country has witnessed a staggering 36 per cent decrease in arms imports during the last five years.

Earlier, on March 13, 2018, SIPRI had emphasized that the decrease in the import of weapons by Pakistan could be attributed to the country’s deteriorating relationship with Washington DC, previously a major source of arms for Islamabad.

The March 2018 report had held: “Global arms experts in Sweden believe the sale of weapons to the country has recently come under increased scrutiny as the global non-proliferation regime has moved to enforce international sanctions, placing certain suspect organizations and individual dealers on trading black lists. Pakistan pledged $7 billion for its armed forces this fiscal year, and purchased 2.8 per cent of all weapons sold in the world between 2013 and 2017. However, compared to period between 2008 and 2012, when the country was responsible for 4.9 per cent of the total global arms imports, this represents a 36 per cent decrease in the purchase of weapons.”

About 15 months ago, SIPRI had father revealed: “China continues to be the largest exporter of weapons to Pakistan, accounting for an astonishing 70 per cent of the total arms imports of the South Asian country. The United States of America (US) is second on the list, with a 12 per cent share in the export of weapons to the nation. The Russian Federation, which has warmed up ties with Pakistan in recent years, is third, and has a 5.7 per cent stake in its defense sector. Although the actual number of weapons China exports to the country has remained roughly the same over the last ten years, the Chinese share in Pakistani arms imports has jumped from 45 per cent in 2008-2012 to almost 70 per cent in 2013-2017, the report by SIPRI highlights. The non-profit group added that Pakistan also purchased air-launched cruise missiles from China in this period. The quoted increase in imports from China is due to the overall decrease in the procurement of weapons by Pakistan during the past five years.”

As far as the contribution of the United States to the defense industry in Pakistan was concerned, there was a substantial decrease in the world super power’s arms exports to Pakistan till March 2018, as successive administrations in Washington DC had followed a more aggressive policy against the country to express their frustration over Islamabad's perceived lack of action against militants.

The American military aid to Pakistan between 2013 and 2017 had reduced, and so had the sale of the country’s weapons. The sale of American weapons to Pakistan had nosedived by 76 per cent during this period between 2013 and 2017.

In contrast to the figures quoted above, between 2008 and 2012, the US had provided substantial military aid to Pakistan, including 28 combat aircraft and five maritime patrol aircraft.

As far as India was concerned, it had increased the import of weapons by at least 24 per cent during the time period discussed in the above paragraph.

SIPRI had mentioned: “Like Pakistan depends on China, India relies on Russia for the bulk of its weapons. During the 2013-2017 period, Russia had accounted for a whopping 62 per cent of arms imports to India. The relationship between US and India is growing into a strategic partnership against rising superpower China, evidenced by a sky-rocketing 557 per cent increase in arms sales between India and US over the last five years. The US is also supplying the Indians with advanced military equipment.”

On February 4, 2019, the Indian Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis had carried an article on its website, which had stated: “With limited fiscal space available, the defence budget has been subject to a moderate increase of a little over eight per cent. This hike would not, however, satisfy the MoD, which is already grappling with a huge shortage of resources to meet its expenses. In 2018-19, the shortage of funds for the three services alone amounted to 30 per cent - or Rs1,12,137 crore (Indian) - against a projected requirement of Rs3,71,023 crore. What is of greater concern for the MoD is that this shortage is unlikely to be bridged in the next few budgets? With the recurring effects of many of the promised 'populist' measures continuing into future budgets, and a tight fiscal path the government has articulated (by which the fiscal deficit is planned to be contained at three per cent of GDP from 2020-21 onwards), the scope for a hefty increase in defence expenditure in the medium-term looks grim.”