Bridging the gulf

The just-concluded visit to Pakistan of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince His Excellency Mohammed bin Zayed, which came after well over a decade, has generated quite some optimism that the two countries are rekindling the spirit of their mutually warm and traditional bonhomie.

This latest show of camaraderie is primarily being seen from the monetary assistance perspective given that the UAE, like Saudi Arabia, has offered a generous financial support package to Pakistan’s faltering economy. Certainly, there is more to it than the huge sums of money that are changing hands. This rekindling of old ties has a huge potential to cultivate a new long-term and mutually beneficial relationship not only with the UAE but countries within the fold of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), especially since the block is receiving new impetus to play an active role in the changing Middle East.

However, this relationship will be full of challenges and several possible potholes. Now that the US-led efforts to bring about a regime change in Iran and curtail Iran’s regional influence as well as that of its proxies is receiving a determined push, Pakistan could find itself in a very awkward position. The Pakistani side will need to show a consistent and serious display of diplomatic nuance to create a fine balance between the desires of the US and its GCC allies, and the security implications from any such adventure in the future. Pakistan will have to skilfully curtail the urges of its allies to drag it into any potential disaster without compromising its relationships with all-important and influential partners.

It would be timely to revisit the circumstances that had led to the cooling of the relationship between the two allies. It was at the start of the war in Yemen – where the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have dislodged the government that is since being supported by Saudi Arabia. When Pakistan’s parliament passed a resolution insisting on neutrality in the war, effectively blocking any possibility to send troops at the behest of the GCC, there was massive displeasure among the block which was expecting Pakistan to cower to its demands.

While the Saudi reaction was measured and circumspect at best, the UAE issued an extremely strong retort. Dr Anwar Mohammed Gargash, the UAE’s minister of state for foreign affairs, took to Twitter and suggested that Pakistan would pay a “heavy price” for taking on what he described an “ambiguous stand” on the war. He had even advised Pakistan to take a clear position “in favour of its strategic relations with the six-nation Arab Gulf Cooperation Council”. This led to an equally vocal reaction from the then-interior minister in Pakistan, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, who said the response, was “in total violation of established diplomatic norms and principles” as it was an “insult to its [Pakistan’s] self-respect, which is totally unacceptable”.

Although the damage was reasonably contained by both sides, possibly with active Saudi assistance, the spat led the UAE to pivot towards India. In early February last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the UAE wherein he was shown unprecedented warmth and respect. The visit was described by His Excellency Mohammed Bin Zayed as a reflection of longstanding historical ties and a testament to the friendly bilateral relationship. The two sides signed five important agreements related to the energy sector, railways, manpower, and financial services as well as dozens of MOUs including the first Indian investment in the upstream oil sector of the UAE, “transforming the traditional buyer-seller relationship to a long-term investor relationship”.

One of the MoUs was signed with the government of Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir, indicating that the UAE government was changing its traditional stand of supporting Pakistan’s position on the issue. The MOU sought to establish multi-modal logistics park and hub in Jammu comprising warehouses and specialised storage solutions. Interestingly, Pakistan chose not to issue any reaction, at least not in public. It is unclear if the government at the time had approached the UAE authorities on the issue.

Even before the Yemen war crisis, the Indian influence within the Gulf region was growing exponentially, with a consequential and incremental decay in the Pakistani clout. This has been marked by a steady increase in Pakistan-phobia. Many in Pakistan directly attribute it to growing Indian control of the local channels of communications, business, and finance. In December 2013, as Dubai won the Expo 2020 vote beating opponents like Russia, Brazil, and Turkey, Gulf News, an influential UAE daily, accused Pakistan of not voting in their favour and said they “deserved answers” since the UAE was “a key financial supporter of the infrastructure and development projects in Pakistan”.

In response, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) described the allegations as “baseless and malicious”, insisting that the country had voted for Dubai in the later stages of the vote, as Turkey withdrew (Turkey had sought Pakistan’s support years before the UAE had entered the race). In early April 2018, Dhahi Khalfan, head of Dubai’s General Security, likened Pakistanis living in the UAE to smugglers, drug peddlers, and criminals, and even called upon Dubai authorities to stop hiring Pakistanis. In comparison, he praised Indians as disciplined. This incident created an unwarranted scare and shook the confidence of Pakistani expatriates living in the country.

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s effort to regenerate the traditional relationship between the two countries is certainly a welcome change. That Khan drove HE Bin Zayed, who is seen as the de-facto ruler of his country, to the Prime Minister’s House displays confidence and promise for a possible new future. There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the GCC are important and time-tested allies of Pakistan and that this relationship needs to be nurtured for the common good of the peoples of these countries. It is equally important for both sides to understand the limitations of their alliance, to avoid misplaced and impractical expectations, particularly in terms of alien wars.

Much to the chagrin of its Arab allies, Pakistan’s reluctance to send troops to the war theatre in Yemen stands vindicated; and that should inform the spirit of future engagements. At the same time, Pakistan must positively invest in ensuring the security of its Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Twitter: @murtaza_shibli