By-elections on 11 National Assembly and 25 provincial assemblies’ seats this month may now generate more heat following the arrest of the leader of the opposition and PML- N Shahbaz Sharif, days before the by-polls.
Difficult to say how much impact it will make on the outcome of the results but if the ruling PTI government fails to retain few of the seats it had won in July 25 general elections within 100 days in power, it would be seen as a dip in its popularity graph. So, it is ‘now or never’ like situation for both government and the opposition.
By-election history favours the PTI as ruling party hardly loses ‘mini-polls’ but this time it will be one against two ie the PTI v PML-N-PPP. If the PTI wins it would certainly play its ‘anti-corruption’ card but if it loses two or three seats which they had won in July, it will be an embarrassing position for them. One thing which can go against them would be its recent decision of price hike and rise in gas and CNG price. The other factor could be its internal strife particularly in Lahore. The PTI intends to sell its narrative against both the PML-N and the PPP but some of its recent decisions on tickets distribution can go against them. For instance, Imran Khan certainly likes Humayun Akhtar to win against Kh Saad Rafiq in an expected close contest in Lahore.
The PTI would certainly like to win majority of those seats particularly the one fallen vacant after Imran retained his traditional seat of Mianwali. More importantly, the PTI can’t afford to lose even few PA seats in Punjab, as its government is not in a very comfortable position reflected from the recently held elections on a Senate seat of Ch Sarwar, who resigned after he took oath as Punjab governor.
Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz have not addressed any public meeting or convention since their release on bail, apparently because of the death of Begum Kulsoom Nawaz, and confined themselves to their Raiwind residence for appearance in NAB court. There are some speculations about their presence on October 12 party’s public meeting in Lahore or at least one of them Nawaz or Maryam will address that has given new hope to otherwise demoralised PML-N.
Arrest of Shahbaz Sharif and silence of Nawaz and Maryam could further reduce the PML-N chance to win as the PTI was strongly selling its narrative that ‘all corrupt’ would go to jail. These by-elections would also be the test for the recent revival of the PML-N-PPP relationship. The PML-N supporting the PPP candidate in South Punjab and in Karachi while the latter would support the PML-N candidates in other by-elections and the leaders of the two parties were likely to address joint meetings.
In a rare show of solidarity, the PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto has condemned the way Shahbaz Sharif was arrested and also favours requisitioning the National Assembly session. It is difficult to say at this stage whether this relationship would last and the 2006 ‘Charter of Democracy’ (CoD) would revive or not, but jointly contesting by-polls certainly is a way forward.
The PML-N was looking for ‘breaking ice’ since last year, when former premier Nawaz Sharif was disqualified and later when he was convicted but former president Asif Ali Zardari had even refuse to meet the PML-N leaders and was annoyed over what they did with his friend Dr Asim Hussain.
For two prime reasons the PPP has soften its position. (1) PM Imran Khan and the PTI government refusing to soften its position against the PPP and (2) fear of possible crackdown on party leadership by the NAB or FIA, including action against Zardari and his sister Faryal Talpur.
Perhaps, both have missed their chances and despite some of PPP’s controversial decisions in the recent past like in the Senate elections and its chairman election and refusal to vote for Shahbaz on PM seat or Hamza on CM, the former president or PPP leadership did not got any ‘relief’ or change of heart from the PTI or those who matter in power politics.
Secondly, it would be interesting to see how the government and opposition behave during the forthcoming National Assembly session which is likely to be summoned before by-elections. The PTI government looks in an aggressive mood despite knowing that some of its actions have brought opposition members close to each other. Its attack has come through vocal Central and Punjab information ministers Fawad Chaudhry and Fayyazul Hassan Chohan respectively.
Therefore, chances are that PTI would not soften its tone and was preparing for counterattack on the PML-N and the PPP.
These by-polls have generated more heat as for the first time in many years the PML-N and the PPP are contesting by-polls from a joint platform. Now, if the PTI manages to retain its seats particularly three vacated by Imran, the ruling party could claim that it had defeated even the combined candidate of opposition. If they lose few seats including those fallen vacant by Captain, it would be seen as PTI’s fall in its popularity graph and that too in such a short time. All this has made these forthcoming ‘mini-elections’ very significant for both government and opposition particularly in post-Shahbaz arrest and Nawaz’s silence. All eyes are now on the possible strategy of former premier Nawaz Sharif, now?
What would be Prime Minister Imran Khan and PTI’s counter strategy as the recent increase in gas tariff and rise in CNG prices did not go well for them in this context. Yet, Imran has two advantages (1) It is too early for the people to change their mind and (2) his supporters support action against Sharif brothers and the PML-N leaders.
Timing of Shahbaz arrest and the way he was arrested has already drawn mixed reaction. Critics doubt that it was a mere coincident that just before the general elections Nawaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz and Capt Safdar were convicted and almost a week before by-elections the PML-N president was also arrested.
These by-polls, first since July 25 elections will be the test case for both Sharifs and Imran and the latter would not like to lose seats won by the PTI particularly those won by him. Unlike in the past there are also chances that the turnout in October’s by-election on some seats would be better because the opposition parties in particular are planning to make it as launching pad for their future relationship and secondly for the PML-N, its supporters can turn up at the polling stations as reaction to recent actions against Sharifs. If they fail it would further damage the party as well as Sharifs future politics.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO
