Who’s backing the main contenders?

Karachi
As the constituency is dominated heavily by the Urdu-speaking community or Mohajirs, the three key political parties contesting the by-polls are using tactics to attract voters on a linguistic basis. They are also seeking support from sectarian religious parties.
The Pakistan People’s Party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Awami National Party, the four other key political parties in the city, have not fielded their candidates for the by-polls.
Besides, the PPP and the ANP are not even against supporting any political party in the by-elections. Latif Mughal, the PPP information secretary, said the party had submitted nomination papers for its candidates but later withdrawn them.
“The PPP is neutral in the by-polls and not supporting any contesting party,” he added.
ANP leaders said there was no sizable Pashtun community in the constituency and therefore the party did not participate in the polls.
However, the PML-N, the ruling party in the Centre, has announced that it was supporting the JI.
“We have sizeable vote bank in the constituency and our supporters will not only cast their votes in favour of the JI candidate,” said Muhammad Ismail Rahu, the provincial president of the PML-N.
But political observers believe that the PML-N does not have sufficient organisational support in the constituency.
Although the mainstream political and religious parties have not announced that they will back the MQM in the NA-246 by-polls, the party has been able to garner the support of small sectarian religious groups.
An independent candidate, who was the provincial president of the Sheikh Rashid-led Awami Muslim League, has officially joined the MQM and withdrawn himself in favour of Jameel.
On April 20, 10 Shia groups announced that they were supporting the MQM and appealed to their supporters to vote its candidate.
They inlcude the Tanzeem-e-Azadari Pakistan, the Tanzeem-e-Aza Pakistan, the Tehreek-e-Nifaaz-e-Fiqa-e-Jafria, the Shia Federation, the Jafaria Alliance, the Anjuman-e-Zakireen-e-Imamia, the Anjuman-e-Zakireen-e-Muhammad-o-Al-e-Muhammad, the Idara Deen-o-Danish Al-e-Muhammad, the Pakistan Shia Council and the Idara Tableeghat-e-Islami. The next day, some religious scholars associated with the Ittehad-e-Bain-ul Muslimeen also announced their support for the MQM.
Analysts say that these small religious groups have been supporting the MQM for a long time. “The MQM started supporting them to counter the growing influence of key religious parties,” said a religious leader. “For example, the Jafaria Alliance, a Shia group, is led by Allama Abbas Komeli, who was elected as a senator on an MQM. Also, the Ittehad-e-Bain-ul Muslimeen works as a sister organisation of the MQM,” he added.
The PTI has managed to fetch the support of the Majlis-e-Wahdat Muslimeen, a key Shia political party, and two key Barelvi parties – the Jamiat-e-Ulema Pakistan and the Pakistan Sunni Tehreek.
Analysts believe that these parties can help increase the votes of the PTI in the by-polls.
“These parties have strong organisational structure in the constituency and have remained anti-MQM from the beginning,” said a political analyst.
Two key Deobandi religious parties – the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-Fazl and the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-Sami – are supporting the JI.
Tge Ahle Sunnat Wal Jaamat, another Deobandi group that was previously operating as the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan before a ban was imposed on it, is also secretly supporting the JI, insiders told The News.
Observers say that the Deobandi vote bank plays a vital role in the constituency where the Madani Mosque, the headquarters of Tableeghi Jamaat, is located. However, the Tableeghi Jamaat remains apolitical and impartial. Alhe-Hadith groups, including the Tehreek Ahle Hadith and the Jamiat-e-Ahle Hadith are also supporting the JI.
Anti-MQM vote bank split:
After failing to persuade each other to withdraw their candidate from the NA-246 race, the PTI and the JI are now separately contesting the by-polls, causing a split in the anti-MQM vote in the constituency, an area that is considered the the bastion of the MQM.
Although the MQM is a favourite in the NA-246 by-elections in the light of the electoral history of the constituency, analysts believe that the JI and PTI alliance could have doubled their strength and given a tough time to the MQM.
In the 2002 general polls, Naseem had secured 32,879 votes running for NA-246 from the platform of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal against MQM’s Haji Azizullah Brohi, who won the seat by grabbing 53,134 votes.
In 2008, the JI, along with other component parties of the All-Parties Democratic Alliance, a coalition that included the PTI and the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, had boycotted the general elections.
In those elections, PPP’s Sohail Ansari had secured only 6,741 votes against MQM candidate Sufyan Yousaf, who succeeded by bagging 186,033 votes.
In the 2013 general elections, MQM’s Nabeeb Gabol had secured 137,874 votes. Though PTI’s Amir Sharjeel was the runner-up with 31,875 votes, Nasim had managed to secure 10,321 votes despite the party’s midday boycott of the polls.