Possible scenario at NA-246

ISLAMABAD: No by-election has generated as much heat, attention and coverage as the NA-246, Karachi. One of the reasons could be to test the MQM strength after the Karachi operation. So, what can be the possible scenario on the polling day on April 23? What are the key factors in this election? Will there be any upset, or business as usual?
The seat fell vacant after the MQM candidate Nabil Gabol resigned or was asked to resign. Whether Gabol’s confession of his alleged “fake victory” is true or false, but it may close doors on him in any future election, as he could “disqualify” on this very confession.
But, his resignation paved way for by-election particularly in the backdrop of raids at the MQM headquarters, controversial video statement of Saulat Mirza from death cell, arrest of some of party’s sector and unit in charges and cases of serious nature against its alleged militants.
Thus, the MQM is contesting this by-election against all odds and it is certainly not an easy election for them. The last close contest in NA-246 was in 2002 when the MQM got 53,000 votes and won by some 20,000 against Jamaat-e-Islami-led Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA).
The Rangers have been given unprecedented powers not only to maintain law and order both outside and inside the polling stations, but they will also ensure “free and impartial” elections — something which is supposed to be the responsibility of the Election Commission.
The two major parties, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Jamaat-e-Islami, should not have complaints now, as the elections are not being held under any “fear.”
If we go by history, it is one of safest seats for the MQM, but there are factors which can go against them. Altaf Hussain is confident that they would win without much challenge from their rivals.
“Muhajir factor” still holds the key for the MQM in this election as 80 per cent of voters from this particularly constituency are Urdu-speaking. If we go by the recent speeches of Altaf Hussain, we see these revolve round the events which created a sense of insecurity among the Muhajirs. The JI too has Urdu-speaking vote bank and is active in this constituency for years.
But, the MQM today is contesting in a situation where hundreds of its workers are underground for fear of getting arrested, organizational difficulties, massive media hype against them, high-profile cases including the one against Altaf Hussain and two major parties contesting against them — Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. How much impact these event would have on the voter’s mind is important.
This very factor has also motivated the MQM workers. Its leadership is now looking for a big turn-out, as it not only likes to retain the seat, but also wants victory in a big way. Can they do it again? Any upset in the result could take the MQM back to 1986 position.
The MQM has turned its traditional Jinnah Ground, center for its election campaign, which every day gives a festivity look and liberal color in the campaign. Besides, its candidate and top leaders are holding regular corner meetings.
The Jamaat-e-Islami, which is constantly losing elections against the MQM in the city for the past two decades has a lot of stakes and sees April 23rd elections as a sign of hope for its revival and that too before the next local bodies elections. But, they too are facing problems, which can go against them. Its Amir Sirajul Haq has so far failed in convincing the PTI to withdraw its candidate. There is a small internal problem of JI.
A dissident of JI, youth wing, Usman Moazzam, is also contesting on the ground that the JI failed to do much for the return of Dr Afia Siddiqui from the US. In 2013, JI’s Naimatullah refused to withdraw against Dr Fouzia Siddiqui, sister of Dr Afia. Later, Dr Fouzia withdrew but was not happy with the JI.
However, the JI has so far held two major public meetings and several corner meetings as part of its pro-active campaign and looks more aggressive than the PTI. The JI women wing is also looking for its pro-active role for bringing women voters to the polling stations.
The PTI believes it has emerged as the second largest party in Karachi after 2013 elections and has good chance on April 23. Its chief Imran Khan is once again in Karachi for his major public meeting on Sunday (today), which perhaps would be its last major show of strength.
The PTI has refused to withdraw its candidate Imran Ismail in favor of JI’s Rashid Naseem arguing that it has a better chance than the JI in this constituency to win after 2013 elections. Both have also developed differences on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Cantonment Board elections. “The PTI is a force for tomorrow not JI,” said one PTI leader, who didn’t want to be named.
The combined JI and PTI strength in the light of the last election would be around 55,000, but if the PTI withdraw its supporters will not necessarily vote for the JI. It will either stay at home or may vote for the MQM. After all, the PTI has damaged the MQM more because both are liberal in nature unlike the JI. Therefore, a triangular fight can also go against the MQM.
However, the main target of both the PTI and JI is MQM. Both take credit for removing the atmosphere of “fear” in Karachi. Both claim they have the capacity and strength to replace the MQM as the major force in the city.
Here comes the crucial question: what must be going on in the mind of “common but not committed voters?”
(1) What the MQM has given us so far or has failed? (2) Is MQM still a hope for Muhajirs, but have they really protected our interest (3) Can the JI or PTI provide a better alternative (4) What can they do for us in Karachi, where they hardly have any position in the Sindh Assembly. (5) Who can protect our jobs or provide us job security, jobs, MQM, JI or PTI. (6) Why only MQM is the target in the operation. Is it because of Muhajir factor or they were involved in heinous crimes. Why other parties accused of having militant wings were not touched. (7) Who is easy to approach and can solve our day to day problems.
Now, all the three parties need to address these questions and come out with better answers. If the MQM has failed, others are tested while the PTI too has not been able to emerge as party for Karachi.
Satisfactory answers would bring voters to the polling stations. It is certainly not a “walkover” for any party and its result would certainly have its impact on the politics of Karachi, in particular.
A big turnout would mean people had got the answer but low turnout would mean people lost faith in either of the three. It’s a big constituency of 0.5 million (five lac) population out of which around three 3,70,000 are registered voters. But, one has to win NA-246. Let’s wait for the lucky winner.
One last thing: The Rangers have to maintain neutrality, as it is essential for the ongoing operation in Karachi. They have to maintain law and order besides keeping an eye on the possibility of any terrorist attack particularly in the light of what had happened a few days back. The killing of an SHO has once again raised finger at the presence of al-Qaeda, Taliban and also Daish in the city.
The writer is a senior analyst and columnist of Geo, The News and Jang.