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Thursday March 28, 2024

Is Karachi ready for change?

By Mazhar Abbas
June 05, 2018

Karachi voters take time to vote for a change and it will be very interesting to see the changing trends before July 25 elections. Though the main political battle will be in Punjab, the outcome of Karachi results will be of utmost importance for country and city’s future politics.

Which way city of over 25 million that has already been deprived in census as its population been shown much less than the actual population will go? Will it go for a change both in the leadership and also in trends or will stick to its 30-year affiliation with one party. The last drastic change in the trend in Karachi was witnessed in 1988, when it switched its politics from religious to ethnic politics. Never in country’s history, the party in power — PPP or PML-N — in Islamabad won in Karachi. This trend has not been defeated yet for different reasons for the last three decades, but as mainstream political parties are now taking keen interest in the city’s elections and a strong MQM — divided and shattered with an addition to a boycott appeal from one of its strong factions — the battlefield for NA-21 and PS-43 seats is now wide open.

Beside census, the delimitation of constituencies would further hurt the MQM’s chances in the elections. The MQM had been winning over 85 percent of seats in the previous elections from 1988 to 2013. So, will the Election-2018 would also change the political trend and pattern in Karachi, and if so in which direction. Will it go for national party, if so which party or will it return to 70s and go back to religious parties? It can also go for any other Karachi- based party. For the first time a strong ‘pro-MQM or pro-Muhajir’ vote stand divided between the MQM-London, MQM, PIB, MQM- Bahadurabad, MQM (Haqiqi) and even Pak Sarzameen Party. This division has opened the space for parties like PPP, PTI, PML-N and MMA, whose common ‘anti-MQM’ votebank has always been divided. So a balance slightly shifted towards anti-MQM. Beside Muhajirs, the other strong votebank in Karachi is of Pashtuns, as it is generally believed its population of nearly two million but many of them had their votes registered in their hometowns. In the present scenario, the remaining votes could be divided between PTI, ANP, MMA and PML-N.

Sindhis and Balochs votes will go en bloc to the PPP, which is now confident of winning some Muhajir-dominated constituencies and therefore have given tickets to Urdu- speaking candidates. The PPP always had strong pockets in Karachi, but their seats tally never crosses more than three seats. Punjabis too have a large population but their vote is scattered in different constituencies and they are looking towards proper PML-N candidates. Besides, a strong Gujrati and Memon vote which so far has been with the MQM could also switch to PSP, PTI, MMA or Threek-e-Labaik Pakistan. Religious parties would also be divided but the MMA is trying to bring the TLP and the Milli Muslim League in its fold and if it succeeded it can help the MMA in Karachi. The boycott appeal from London would certainly benefit ‘anti- MQM’ trend and even if it is 50 percent successful it would diminish chances of the MQM-P as well as of PSP and benefit the PPP and others.

The MQM-London has taken a big risk in making appeal for boycott and asked its voters to stay home. If it is enable to deprive the MQM-P and the PSP, it would claim itself to be the sole representative of ‘Muhajirs’, but a good or reasonable turnout in favour of the two parties would cause a colossal damage to the MQM-London.

So the ‘pro-MQM’ voters are facing a serious dilemma and this confusion persists rather increasing day by day particularly when they see internal conflict between MQM-PIB and MQM- Bahadurabad. The PSP led by former MQM leaders like Syed Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani, is trying to convince and offering a ‘middle way’ to their common voters in Muhajir-dominated areas. The changing scenario provides an ample opportunity to anti-MQM parties to share 21 and 43 seats in the National Assembly and provincial assembly respectively.

MQM-P despite keeping distance with London, moving resolution against the MQM founder, and removing his name from the MQM, constitution, could not restore the confidence of the powerful quarters, which are watching and monitoring Karachi’s political scene very closely. This brought an element of ‘political engineering’, which has never been as visible in Karachi as it is in the last two years and there is every possibility that it will play its role in changing the trends.

But all the MQM factions, London or Pakistan should blame themselves for the crisis they are facing today. Politics of the MQM has never come to this level as it is reflected in the last Senate elections and ‘power struggle’. Their leadership showing a typical ‘middle class’ tendency and less political maturity.

Muhajir voters now have to pick between ‘kite’, (MQM’s traditional symbol), ‘dolphin’ (PSP), bat (PTI), arrow (PPP), book (MMA), lion, PML-N, or abstain and stay at home. Historically Karachi first voted for Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah against Ayub Khan, in the presidential elections and it was the only city along with Dhaka, which had voted for Ms Jinnah, in the 60s. She was the leader of a joint opposition and Urdu- speaking voters under Basic Democracies System and in the process Karachi becoming the opposition city and paying the price.

In 1970, the first general elections on the basis of one man, one vote, Pakistan’s religious parties, Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan secured four out of seven NA seats; the PPP bagged two while Maulana Zafar Ansari won the seat as independent candidate while the PPP stood second. Karachi was practically swept by religious parties led by opposition alliance called PNA in 1977, which later declared the polls rigged after the PPP retained its position in the National Assembly. Karachi showed the first sign of dissent against the religious parties when it did not vote in Gen Zia’s referendum in 1984, despite JI support for Gen Zia’s referendum, which allowed him to continue. A year later in 1985, when Zia announced elections on non-party basis, JI and JUP, received a major setback when its strong candidates lost to independent candidates who were also not very well known. It was a clearly indication of the change in the voting trend. In 1987, local bodies a new party mostly comprising young Urdu- speaking people swept local bodies polls and maintained its supremacy in 1988 general elections. Karachi had never witnessed such a clean sweep in favour of the MQM.

The party maintained its position in 1990, and even when they boycotted NA-polls in 1993, which provided space to other parties the turnout was very low and when they participated in the provincial assembly elections, it once again swept the polls. But the MQM leadership did not notice the decline in its popularity despite winning seats and in 2002 it received a major setback when it lost six seats to religious parties’ alliance, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). But the overall mandate did not clearly reflect complete change. The rise of the MMA in 2002 had lot to do with the anti-US uprising against the attack on Afghanistan. The MMA for the first time formed government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and emerged as key opposition alliance.

With division in the MMA and Jamaat-e-Islami’s boycott along with the PTI of 2008, the MQM once again consolidated its position. But the MQM did not learn much from results of 2002, and took 2008 elections for granted. In 2013, the Karachi voters hinted towards the change when the PTI emerged as a challenger and pulled around eight lakh votes. Although the MQM retained most of its seats, the PTI certainly created dent in its constituencies and its leadership got frustrated. In the process it caused damage to itself. Perhaps, the MQM-London misread the ground situation and could not control the damage. The Imran-led PTI too missed the grand opportunity for making inroads in Karachi, which was ready for a change as very large number of families who had never voted for any party wanted to vote for the PTI. So let’s see what change will take place on July 25. Will it be for a change of party, leadership or changing political trend.

The writer is a senior analyst and columnist of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO