Road to disarmament

"Nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation are not utopian ideals. They are critical to global peace and security”
– Ban Ki-moon
Nuclear weapons are regarded as the most inhumane of all weapons ever created by mankind on this planet. With the diffusion of nuclear technology in the 21st century, these weapons are no longer difficult to make and even their limited use could cause destruction on a vastly greater scale.
Events over the past decade have shown that even economically bankrupt countries like North Korea can acquire nuclear capability and a Hiroshima-type bomb is within the reach of Al-Qaeda if it succeeds in stealing or buying a very small amount of fissile material.
Pessimists generally contend that nuclear weapons cannot be un-invented but their use can be regulated, like the use of chemical and biological weapons has already been outlawed. If the global community, led by the US, can garner the urgently needed political will to achieve universal compliance with non-proliferation norms, the goal of ‘general’ and ‘complete’ nuclear disarmament may not be beyond our reach.
After the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, signed in 2010, President Obama indicated his intention to resolve the issues related to US and Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and further bold nuclear cuts. However, all his ambitious efforts were soon bogged down by massive political and diplomatic resistance from certain conservative quarters in both countries.
In 2015, the challenges facing the global nuclear non-proliferation regimes appear insurmountable. The collective failure of the international community to denuclearise North Korea and tackle post-cold war era nuclear threats has brought the world to the nuclear tipping point.
Enough large quantities of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and separated plutonium exist in the world to make 100,000 nuclear weapons. According to some estimates, even nuclear waste in the world contains enough plutonium to make hundreds of thousands of more warheads.
Against this backdrop, a majority of nuclear experts forecast an apocalyptic future on the global nuclear landscape. There is a desperate need for a comprehensive, universal and enforceable non-proliferation treaty that can offer the real possibility of effectively halting the spread of nuclear weapons. Some analysts might view the possibility of such a treaty as impractical or utopian under the present circumstances but the world must think about what is necessary and not only in terms of what is practicable for the time being.
A major challenge faced by the current nuclear non-proliferation regime is that it is neither comprehensive nor universal. The regime does not effectively cover the uncontrolled fissile material that is used for military purposes by countries possessing nuclear weapons. In addition, nuclear weapons material in non-Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) nuclear weapon states – Pakistan, India and Israel – is not safeguarded by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Any effective NPT must be universal because the likelihood of noncompliant states secretly developing nuclear weapons will continue to push their adversaries toward undermining the regime by withdrawing from it in order to acquire nuclear capability.
In order to strengthen the credibility of any future NPT, all countries, including the five NPT member states, should be subjected to the same safeguards so that any feeling of discrimination is removed. Such an agreement must also establish a binding mechanism to immediately take action against any state violating the treaty, without the threat of a veto from the United Nations Security Council.
The current nuclear security framework and the IAEA’s verification capabilities do not cover the materials used for military purposes. The new regime must also fill this gap so that terrorists are denied any small possibility of getting their hands on nuclear materials.
Some analysts are of the view that such a new regime can be built on the foundations of existing institutions and treaties. The aforementioned three criteria – universality, impartiality and enforcement mechanism – can be included in the existing NPT framework in order to benefit from the robust norms already set against nuclear proliferation.
The IAEA must be given more authority to verify compliance with these three criteria in the new nuclear security regime. The new regime must require all countries to provide information about the exact quantities of fissile materials in their possession. Furthermore, all existing initiatives should be strengthened to reduce the possibility of a breach in the security of nuclear materials to a minimum.
The Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material must be made legally binding to secure nuclear material at all stages. All states must also take necessary measures to implement the 2004 UNSC resolution passed to prevent unauthorised entities from gaining access to sensitive materials.
Many other international treaties like the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty currently awaiting the required consent of member states must be ratified and implemented in true letter and spirit. All these pillars will provide a strong foundation to the new nuclear security regime to efficiently combat all kinds of dangers emerging from the spread of nuclear weapons.
Lastly, the issue of nuclear secrecy must also be taken care of in order to properly secure fissile material present in nuclear inventories in many countries. So, for the purpose of global security, all countries would have to agree to a more intrusive verification process.
Nuclear terrorism does not pose a threat to a single country; rather it is a global threat that demands global actions. All these goals may not be achievable within a few months but President Obama can take the first step in this direction by persuading other countries to agree to a new nuclear security framework.
Email: rizwanasghar5@unm.edu