Will JI, PTI part ways?

Is Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) confident, or over-confident, of a clean sweep in July 2018 elections that they have decided to take a solo flight? After taking action against 20 of its own MPAs for allegedly selling their vote, its relationship with its five-year coalition partner, Jamaat-e-Islami, seems on verge of collapse. The two may formally announce parting their ways before the end of the assembly tenure, which would complete on May 31.

At a time when political parties normally avoid such break-ups or the disciplinary action the PTI took against its own MPAs belonging to Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly, it seems Imran Khan and Sirajul Haq have almost decided to take a separate route to the elections. Imran Khan’s actions showed he is very confidence about his success chances in the next elections. It has also broken its ties with the JUI-Samiul Haq as well as former KP chief minister Aftab Sherpao and his group.

While the PTI and Imran are all set for solo flight, the JI will take a separate flight, this time with the JUI-F and the two will go into the next elections on the basis of their performance in KP. The PTI is now confident of getting simple majority in KP, on its own and has already announced that they would not form any coalition. In 2013, it won 34 seats, but its strength further increased with reserved seats and 10 Independents also joined them. With the JI, it formed a coalition government.

The PTI, after issuing show-cause notices to its 20 MPAs, has decided to review the case of three MPAs, Ali Zair from DI Khan, Ms Fouzia from Chitral and also of Arif Yusuf.

The PTI leader, Shaukat Yusufzai, is not sure if the JI would quit the coalition unless the JUI-F quits the federal government. But, he admitted serious trust deficit between the two coalition partners for quite sometime. “We gave some of the best ministries to them including all important Local Government as well as Finance, but they created problems in both," he alleged. We will be going into elections without forming alliance with any party, he added.

Apparently, the break-up may suit both as the JI will be contesting the next elections from the platform of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA).

The Jamaat-e-Islami has also taken a risk by joining hands with Maulana Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), with whom it had shared power from 2002 to 2008 from the platform of MMA, which after almost nine years, has revived and the two would contest 2018 elections under one banner and one name.

They are leaving the PTI coalition at a time when Imran is confident of winning the next elections both in Centre, Punjab and KP. How far the JI and JUI-F alliance would damage the PTI and how much it would damage the JI would be quite interesting to watch.

Thus, the accusations from both sides have a lot to do with the changing political scenario in the province. The JI needed something to counter the PTI in the next elections, while the PTI blamed Jamaat for joining hands with ruling PML-N and disqualified PM Nawaz Sharif through his coalition partner (JUI-F).

The JI accused the PTI of selling its members for 60 crore rupees in the Senate elections and Sirajul Haq's statement quoting KP chief minister of taking orders from the 'top' provided an opportunity to the PTI opponents to interpret the statement of following the orders from the 'top’ in their own way.

While both PTI and JI developed differences in the last five years in KP government, particularly over MD Khyber Bank controversy and over some of PTI's liberal policies and posture which at times frustrated the JI veterans, due to which the JI kept distance from the PTI in 2014 ‘dharna’. But, the revival of MMA and joining hands with Maulana Fazlur Rehman has proved as the last nail in the coffin of the PTI-JI coalition.

A formal break-up is expected from the JI, after its Shoora meeting by the end of this month or early May, few weeks before the tenure of the government expires on May 31. Thus, both sides would have reasons to blame each other for what they had not done and also would take credit for performance of their respective ministries and departments.

The split would also provide space for other parties as well such as Pakistan Mulsim League (PML-N), Awami National Party (ANP) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and others. The PTI and JI had long love and hate relationship, which started from the day when PTI chief Imran Khan was manhandled by the activists of Islami Jamiat-e-Tubla during his visit to Punjab University campus few years back. The JI regretted the incident which brought the two sides close to each other and later they jointly boycotted 2008 elections and in 2013, became coalition partners in the government for almost five years.

When about a year back, both the JI and the JUI-F, agreed on the revival of the MMA and contest the next general elections from one platform, one symbol, the JI break-up with the PTI was very much expected.

How this break-up will change political scene in KP would be known in the next few weeks and before elections.  

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO