Are difficult times ahead for MQM?

ISLAMABAD: Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) one of Pakistan’s most organised political force in the country has once again been facing a difficult situation, perhaps far more challenging than in the past for different reasons. How will they be able to cope with the situation would be a big test for its leadership.
I wondered whether why “Jeay Muhajir,” slogans were raised after Rangers left the scene and during Altaf Hussain’s speech. Is this some kind of an indication or just an emotional outburst?
In the early hours of Wednesday, MQM’s most prestigious place, Nine-Zero (90), resident of its chief Altaf Hussain and its adjacent offices were raided by a platoon of Rangers and they allegedly arrested some of the key suspects, wanted in different criminal cases. Besides, weapons, including some imported arms, were also recovered during the search operation.
However, the timing of the raid was very significant as it came within 24 hours after a political consensus was reached on the Senate chairman. It also came at a time when the MQM was about to join the Sindh government. Will they now join the provincial government or not, would depend on the possible outcome of this operation.
The operation is certainly does not end here as we have witnessed that in the last few weeks many MQM activists had been picked up. The MQM itself claimed that number of its workers were missing and some had allegedly been killed “extra judicially.”
It has also come at a time when political parties, particularly the MQM and Jamaat-e-Islami, are gearing up for the local bodies’ elections to be held in September this year. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is also planning to launch a movement from next month or from May, against the government.
Therefore, these are testing times for the MQM leadership, both in Pakistan and in London.The party is already passing through a difficult phase as far as their “internal” organisational problems are concerned, which they have not been able to overcome as yet.
Unlike in the past, the MQM is also finding it difficult to get the kind of political support which they often got in the past during operations against its workers.The raid at the 90 added fuel to the fire particularly at a time when the MQM was supposed to give the names of its possible nominees for the provincial government ministries to Rehman Malik who is dealing with the MQM.
However, Malik is very unlikely will be able to play any role in preventing any such action from the Rangers or law enforcement agencies, as for all practical purposes the “ Karachi targeted operation”, is now being looked after by the Karachi Corps Commander, DG Rangers and Sindh IGP, while the chief minister and governor are part of the Apex Committee.
The extreme action came two weeks after the army chief visited Karachi and assured the Apex Committee that there will no political interference in the operation or in the transfers and postings.
A senior police officer told this ascribe on condition of anonymity that the message was clearly communicated to all the concerned police officers, who are handling the operation.So, what are the options available for the MQM in the present circumstances? It’s a big challenge for them but will they be able to generate political support in the country against what its leaders termed as “political victimisation”. The Rangers’ officials believe that it was the raid on the information about presence of some suspects as its operation was confined to militants and criminals.
The MQM in the past had opted for different options, including resigning from the assemblies, withdrawing its support to the government. Those options perhaps may not be suitable for the leadership in the present circumstance as it may neither effect the government nor the opposition, both in Sindh and at the Centre. The other option for them could be protest, strike and shutdown. This option may be used but they can face strong resistance from the law enforcement agencies.
The MQM can follow the policy of “wait and see”. They may wait to see the outcome of the raid. Will this raid lead to massive crackdown on the MQM, or will there be more selective targeted operations.
If there is no further crackdown, the MQM may confine its protest to demonstration, strike and walkout from the assemblies, but if its headquarters or secretariat remained sealed for some time, the party’s Rabita Committee may go for some extreme actions.
The decision to raid the MQM head office was said to have taken with the consent of the highest authority, not only of the province but also at the Centre. A night before the operation, a high-level meeting was also held in Karachi, which gave a “go-ahead” for the raid.
It also came at a time when the prime minister was due in the city, not only to lay the foundation of Karachi-Lahore Motorway, but also to take a briefing on law and order situation and Karachi operation.The prime minister was also briefed and informed about the raid and the alleged recovery of weapons and arrest of some of the suspects.But the law enforcement agencies and those leading the operation need to be careful as mishandling of the operation like in the past could have adverse affect on the ongoing operation.
The authorities also have to be careful that the operation against the alleged militants and outlawed groups does no turn against the MQM.For the MQM, it will be important to see the reaction of the Sindh government, the PPP, and particularly the former president Asif Ali Zardari. Will they come out to the rescue of the MQM. Their reaction will determine the fate of the MQM.
Secondly, will the MQM join the provincial government in such circumstances or will they go for some extreme political options like resigning from the assemblies, and asking its governor to quit. Perhaps, the MQM may not go to that extreme unless they get enough political support, which at present looks difficult.
But, since the day the JIT report of Baldia Town factory fire was leaked followed by the arrest of some MQM office holders, it was evident that the operation against the MQM may start anytime soon. It has not yet started in its full flow but with the raid at the 90, it clearly means that the party is now on the “hit list”, meaning anyone in the party, suspected of any alleged criminal activities could be arrested.
It is difficult to say at this stage that it’s a beginning of another 1992, when army raided the 90, or of 1994, when many MQM leaders were arrested from Azizabad, but there are all indication that difficult days are ahead for the MQM, as a new phase of Karachi targeted operation will start after Senate elections. Infect, it has started with the raid at the Nine-Zero.