The best option for opposition

As the PTI’s Central Executive Committee will meet today to consider different options to exert pressure on the Punjab government, it may not be easy for the party to go for extreme action without the joint opposition, which at the moment seems divided.

The CEC will be looking for different options – including the crucial decision whether to go for en bloc resignations and the dissolution of KP Assembly or to adopt the 2014 formula of resigning from assemblies but retaining the KP government – as they have a good chance to increase the party seats in the Senate in March.

There is also a strong view in the party to start preparing for the general elections as per schedule in July or August this year. Dissolving the KP Assembly at a time when the party has a chance to improve the tally of its Senate seats looks a difficult decision both for Imran and Chief Minister Pervaiz Khattak.

Well-informed party sources also revealed that another option would be to exert pressure on the government by holding public meetings without using the resignation option and against blocking the Senate elections.

Imran Khan and Sheikh Rashid (who had announced his resignation from National Assembly) were in Dubai for the Shaukat Khanum Cancer Hospital fund-raising campaign and had discussed the possible fallout of en bloc resignations. Sheikh Rashid has delayed sending his resignation the awaiting PTI's decision.

Imran Khan last week hinted that his party would also consider using this option but other senior leaders believe that unless the PPP and other opposition parties also agreed on en bloc resignations, the dissolution of KP Assembly could prove counterproductive for the PTI.

Many PTI leaders believe that the party would increase in the Senate elections and thus there was no point in dissolving the provincial assembly.

Secondly, if the PPP and other opposition parties are not ready to resign or dissolve Sindh and Balochistan assemblies, the PTI would be a loser if it goes ahead and follows Sheikh Rashid's advice.

Now, if PTI decides against the resignations or dissolving KP Assembly, Sheikh Rashid could find himself in a difficult position as he had already made the announcement and also knows his resignation would be immediately accepted once submitted.

While the opposition parties would continue to exert pressure on the government and the PML-N before the next general elections in a bid to see the fall of at least the Punjab government, they are looking towards NAB court and inquiry against the Sharifs.

On the other hand, the PML-N camp encouraged by a large crowd at the last two public meetings and the failure of joint opposition’s show has also worked out a counter strategy in case of an extreme action by the opposition or the PTI. The PML move will come after PTI's decision.

The opposition camp still stands divided over using the extreme option of en bloc resignations and dissolution of three provincial assemblies in a bid to block the Senate elections and force the government to go for early polls, which now seems to be a remote possibility.

They know that en bloc resignations could certainly create political turmoil and may bock the Senate polls too, but at the same time it might also threaten the democratic process and the opposition would also face the blame, something which at least the PPP senior leaders are not in favour of.

With the failure of the joint opposition’s dharna in Lahore last week, its steering committee is yet to meet again amid reports of differences within their rank and file. It appears as if the majority of the opposition parties are now looking for next general elections as per schedule in July or August, instead of going for the extreme action.

Dr Tahirul Qadri's move to bring both Imran Khan and Asif Ali Zardari on one stage met partial success as they were there but still looked on a ‘different page’, resulting in the failure of the first show of the all parties’ steering committee, which was supposed to meet on Friday but hasn’t yet.

On the contrary, the leaders of both PTI and PPP came out with harsh criticism and blamed each other for the failure despite a desperate attempt by Qamar Zaman Kaira to convince that the show was not a failure. A key PTI leader Naeemul Haque was frank enough to call the show completely flop, citing different reasons.

Both parties are expected to take the critical decision this week regarding en bloc resignations, dissolution of the three provincial assemblies or to start manoeuvring for the 51 Senate seats to be vacant on March 11 and start preparing for the next general elections in July.

Conflicting reports are coming from the opposition camp with the opinions clearly divided but the majority view is to let the system run instead of pushing the situation to the extreme which can threaten the system.

The opposition may continue to exert pressure on the government and the PML-N, but they are anxiously awaiting the verdict of NAB court against Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz. They are also trying their luck to get something from Supreme Court in the appeal in the Hudaibiya case or fresh NAB inquiry against Punjab's powerful Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif.

One thing is certain from the PTI and Imran Khan, which is to keep distance from the PPP and Asif Ali Zardari as the majority of PTI leaders believe that going along with them could hurt them in the next elections.

There is also an element of distrust between Imran Khan and Asif Ali Zardari. And the PTI chief in particular is not ready to take the risk of sharing stage with Asif Ali Zardari and believes that the PPP leader could ditch him. He also fears that through JUI-F, he is playing a double role.

Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman has met Asif Ali Zardari just days after Dr Tahirul Qadri's flop show, as stated by Naeem ul Haq. Sources in both camps revealed that the two leaders discussed Balochistan, Senate elections and the possible cooperation between the two parties in the next general elections.

The JUI-F leader, whose party is now part of MMA, also discussed cooperation between his party and the PPP in Sindh in the next general elections. Whether the PTI will go for extreme action or repeat its 2014 strategy in the backdrop of PPP-JUI understanding, the decision in today's meeting will have far-reaching political implications if they did quit from assemblies and also dissolved the KP Assembly.

Sources say the chances are that PTI may not go for extreme action but draw strategy to exert pressure on the government and use the legal option to oust Shahbaz Sharif. The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.