For the first time in her 12-year rule, Angela Merkel is facing a political crisis that may deprive her of the chancellorship she has enjoyed since 2005. On November 20, the talks to form a coalition government failed. This time, the culprit is the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which believes in unrestrained capitalism. It withdrew from coalition talks after four weeks of hectic discussions. In the postwar history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the FDP has mostly played the important role of a king-maker. Since 1948, it has remained a part of various coalition governments with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Overall, the FDP formed a coalition with the CDU for around 22 years and the SDP for 13 years from 1969 to 1982. Perhaps the worst electoral performance of the FDP was in 2013 when it failed to garner even five percent of votes to secure a presence in the Bundestag (the German parliament). It couldn’t win a single seat and, for the first time in its history, remained out of parliament. There was a quick turnaround when it recouped its lost representation by obtaining 11 percent votes in the last elections held in September 2017. This party promotes a free-market economy with only a few government regulations. Since 2013, its leader is Christian Lindner who assumed leadership of the FDP after the party’s humiliating defeat in the previous elections. He has once again transformed the party into a formidable force that can make or break any new government. After withdrawing from the coalition talks, Lindner announced that they have no trust left in Merkel’s party. In the emerging scenario, the role of the German president has become crucial. While it is a ceremonial post within the constitution, the president tries to fix things in the best interest of the country in times of crisis. Currently, the president of Germany is Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who was elected earlier this year at the age of 60. Earlier, he had served as foreign minister for eight years in the first and the third governments formed by Merkel. He holds a doctorate in law and belongs to the SDP. It’s worth remembering that the chancellor of Germany is a PhD in physics. It’s equally interesting to note that Germany is perhaps the only country in the world where both the head of government and the head of state hold PhDs. The same country that had Hitler as its chancellor for 12 years can now boast about having the most qualified and dignified leaders in the world. The point to note here is that a continuation of the democratic process filters leadership and tends to put forward the best candidates. It is up to the people to make their choice. Sometimes they elect leaders such as Modi and Trump. But that’s not the system’s fault as it’s the people who make their right or wrong decisions. People of a dictatorial mindset point out that democracy produces worthless leaders. But this argument is flawed because most of the developed countries have functioning democracies. In Germany, it’s quite possible that the chancellor belongs to one party and the president to another and both work for the same democratic cause. The rest of Europe is looking at Germany intently because a strong democratic tradition has developed in the country during the past 70 years – a system that can put even France and Great Britain to shame. France and Britain have felt proud at their democratic credentials. However, both countries have, of late, seen a resurgence of narrow nationalism. The world was quite astonished by Britain’s decision to quit the EU. The German president has announced that he will hold talks with other political parties as well, including the smaller ones, to find a solution to the deadlock. Currently, out of over 700 seats in the Bundestag, Merkel holds around 250 whereas the SDP has around 150. The SDP was Merkel’s ally in the previous government. But this time around, the SDP has ruled out any possibility of forming a coalition with Merkel, forcing her to negotiate with smaller parties. The FDP has 80 seats whereas the green and the Left parties hold around 70 seats each. The Alternative for Democracy (AfD) has won around 100 seats in the Bundestag. If new elections are held, there is a strong possibility that the AfD will emerge with even more seat and that will be a jolt to the democratic, liberal, and secular politics of Germany. An ideal solution is the coalition between the CDU and the SDP that will strengthen the democratic tradition in Germany and weaken the politics of the Right. In the previous elections held in September, both the CDU and the SDP emerged as the first and second largest parties in the Bundestag. However, they have lost some of the seats that they had previously held in the 2013 elections. In September, Merkel’s party could muster only around 33 percent of votes while the SDP garnered around 20 per cent. Nevertheless, both partners represent around 53 percent of the electorate. For the first time in 12 years, the possibility of Merkel’s resignation has been raised so that another leader may conclude the coalition talks. The happiest party is the AfD, which is waiting for a new election. In the next couple of days, the German president must appoint a new chancellor who can claim a majority in the house. If an appointed chancellor fails to win a majority in the house, he or she has the right to dissolve the Bundestag and conduct new elections. The writer holds a PhD from the University of Birmingham, UK and works in Islamabad. Email: Mnazir1964@yahoo.co.uk
