Imran factor in politics

Imran Khan was not fully satisfied with party's performance in NA-120, and admitted that they could have done better. There was same or even more intense feeling in the PML-N camp, as the constituency belongs to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. How much Imran factor would hurt the ruling party in the next few months before the 2018 elections? Can the PML-N, despite all odds, would be able to counter the Imran factor in Punjab?

He knows well that Sharifs are down, but certainly not out and he certainly would like to go into the next polls minus two Sharifs, Nawaz and Shahbaz, as the presence of even one could spoil his game plan.

Till 2011, most political pundits had even ruled out Imran as a factor in politics, in the presence of Sharifs. But, some had hinted that the PTI could dent the PPP more than the PML-N. They had ruled out Imran and branded him as just a popular cricketer, showbiz style politician, who used both music and dance to attract crowd.

In 2013, he silenced his critics by wining over Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and got record 80 lakh vote to emerge as the third most popular party after PML-N and the PPP. In the last four years, he has secured the second position, and now aims at the top slot in 2018 general elections. Can he get the top slot and enough seats to form a government at Centre?

Imran is all set to go on a 'solo flight’, and looked inspired by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's ‘solo politics’, who never contested elections through an alliance, whether in 1970 or even when he was unpopular in 1977. Even after a martial law, when election was announced in October 1977, Bhutto's PPP contested against all anti-PPP forces.

Over the years, Imran has compromised on his political strategy. Due to weak organisation, the party could not fill the vacuum created in Karachi, not emerged as a real challenger in interior Sindh, despite few good public meetings. Unlike in KP and to some extent in Punjab, Imran could not bring new faces in Sindh. In the last four years, his decision to accept electables, damaged his politics. On the one hand, it put its rising young PTI leaders on the backseat and on the other hand some leaders with controversial background took the front seat.

His strength still is the youth and family and in the post-Panama scenario and poor ratings of the PPP, Imran and his party see it as a window of opportunity for themselves in the next elections.

Thus, in a way he accepted some of the traditional style of accepting leaders from other parties in its fold. His strength, by and large, still intact but NA-4, Peshawar by-polls will be yet another test for him and the PTI.

If Imran loses from this position of strength it would be more because of his organisational skill and capacity to perform good enough to win Punjab, rather because of the strength of opposition, which in the PML-N case facing problems, both within and outside.

Imran also wants to part ways with Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), which had been in coalition with the PTI in KP, but criticised Imran and PTI's style of 'music and dance’, in public meetings, but Imran termed it his way of politics in which he was successful. The JI is looking for revival of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA).

Many of his critics in parties, which were damaged most because of the Imran factor, like the PPP, JUI-F and now even the PML-N started feeling the heat, believe that his popularity graph has come down and ruled out his chances even in KP, what to talk of Punjab.

While we may not witness any direct contest between Imran and Nawaz Sharif, after latter's disqualification, Sharifs now pin hope on Shahbaz Sharif, who too is no out of trouble, yet.

Imran and the PTI feel their chances would be bright in case of Sharif's complete political ouster and would not mind even if they go into exile, but if Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz decided to challenge Imran in the next polls, irrespective of their own fate, the 2018 elections would be most exciting.

Political tension between Sharifs and Imran became too tense and personal too, as both have levelled some very serious allegations and there have been personal attack, too.

It is quite rare in our politics that one man's factor practically caused so much dent to more than one party. In a way, Imran has created history as his 'factor,' since 2013, become a major worry for Pakistan Peoples Party, Awami National Party and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, which had been directly affected because of Imran phenomena.

Perhaps, PML-N is the only stumbling bloc left for him to reach PM House, in 2018 and despite completely down and uncertain political future ahead for Sharifs, Imran is looking to fill the vacuum, provided PML, allow him to do that.

Imran at times follows non-conventional way in otherwise traditional politics. Against the advice of some party leaders to be soft on PPP and concentrate on anti-PML-N narrative, he did not spare former president Asif Ali Zardari.

His style of politics may force Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari, Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Asfandyar Wali to join hands, but Imran believes that even if they join hands, they could not cause a dent.

The PTI leadership and Imran himself knew the deep roots of PML-N and Sharif's strength in Punjab, which no one had yet to broken since 1985, bearing retired General Pervez Musharraf's era.

Imran knows that without winning Punjab, he cannot win Pakistan. With no chance of the major revival of PPP in coming years in Punjab, the PTI has the opportunity without giving space to others including religious parties.

Imran, who was a non-entity and just another politician till 2008, now poses a serious challenge for those who had completed ruled out him and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). What can be the possible scenario, if all Sharifs are ousted from politics for one reason or the other?

Imran Khan's phenomena in politics is quite interesting and his protest and agitation style been more controlled, and a mixture of entertaining as well as agitating for their demands. Dharna is one factor while music and dance is another and this itself attracted a new breed into politics i.e. youth and families. But, in the process his workers become more intolerant against their critics and PTI's social media in particular faced criticism for their alleged abusive language.

It would be wrong to blame Imran as the architect of this style. For the first time, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was criticised by the then opposition for using 'abusive language’, humiliating, both his opponents as well as party leaders.

Imran himself tried to control the situation after receiving complaints of misbehaviour with his women workers.

Imran opted for dharna, from famous Arab Spring particularly at Al-Tehrir Square, few years back which brought down the government of former Egyptian President Hosni Mobarak.

In 2014, Imran once again created history with 126-days 'dharna,' which was simply unprecedented.

Imran Khan's critics belonging to both 'right and left' wing school of thought often criticised him for giving some bad trends in politics and making it a more 'non-serious' but over the years, his style of dharna has been adopted as new way of protest, replacing agitation, court arrest the old fashion.

Politics was different in the 1970s. It was more ideological between right and left, something missing in the era of Sharif and Imran.

Whether Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf would succeed in the next general elections or not, but the cricketer-cum-politicians in the last 20 years has introduced some new phenomena in politics, which have shrunk the space for both liberal and rightist style of politics.

Imran, like Sharif and Zardari, is quite capable of damaging himself, but no one can rule out Imran as a factor, anymore.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO