NA-120: lesson for all

Elections are part of any democratic process, but at times low turnout in any election, even if it is by-elections, should be a matter of concern for all the contesting parties. NA-120 was one of the most important by-elections for both ruling PML-N and the opposition PTI, and one was expecting a better turnout, than it turned out to be i.e. around 33pc. Considering the political atmosphere in which it was held after hectic campaign from both parties in the post-SC verdict on Panama, which led to disqualification of former PM Nawaz Sharif from politics and was de-seated, and his review petition was also dismissed, the PML-N considered itself lucky to retain their seat.

All credit goes to PTI's Dr Yasmin Rashid, who once again put up a gallant fight and lost by a close margin. Her percentage was improved against PML-N candidate Mrs Kulsoom Nawaz. But, in the end, the PTI lost and the PML won. However, the PML needs a lot to do and assess why it failed to repeat its past performance? Why it could not brought voters to polling stations and the problems within parties. Same stands for the PTI and Imran Khan.

Sunday's election could be called a full dress rehearsal for all mainstream parties as well as for Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) before the next general elections. It’s a wake-up call for all. It is time for the PML-N, PTI and others to utmost go ahead with drastic reforms to ECP, the time which opposition in particular had wasted.

There was hardly any political pundit in the country who had predicted victory for PTI's Dr Yasmin Rashid, but most of them had predicted that the margin of defeat would be less than it was in 2013. So, no one was surprised when Kulsoom Nawaz was declared winner against Dr Rashid, this time with even a close margin of some 13,000 votes. In 2013, margin was around 40,000. As they say, in the end victory is victory and the PML-N maintained its supremacy in NA-120.

It would have been even better if despite allegations and counter allegations, PTI leader Imran Khan or Dr Rashid made a call to Maryam Nawaz and congratulated her.

On the other hand, democracy would have been strengthened if, instead of attacking the PML leader Maryam Nawaz, the PTI or Imran, could have congratulated Dr Rashid for giving tough fight.

This election result was also shocking for Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which saw itself on further decline, instead of showing some marks of improvement. It clearly indicates that the party workers and the voters, which used to side with PPP, had not returned and had either gone in the PTI or in PML-N.

PPP leadership needs to revisit its politics particularly after 2008 and 2013 elections. Merely bringing a few electables may not solve its problem because electables can change their loyalties overnight. Its post-2013 politics and had only benefited the PTI, because Imran is a main rival of the PML-N, with a popular base. He has also not spared the PPP leader, former president, Asif Ali Zardari.

Similarly, if one party, which has been constantly performing badly and has gone from bad to worse, is Jamaat-e-Islami. In the last few by-elections, both in Punjab and even in Karachi, its candidates could not save their sureties. It clearly indicates that even the JI message is not being well received even by its own workers, what to talk of voters.

It was also the first election for Jamaatud Dawa and its political wing, Milli Muslim League (MML) and on debut, it even surprised the PPP and the JI. Although they just got over 4,000 votes, still ahead of the two far more experienced parties. Many political observers were impressed with its campaign and organisational capacity required in electorate politics.

In the long run, the MML would cause problems for not only the PML-N because of the Kashmiri vote, but also for other religious parties like Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI). Therefore, in case of an alliance of religious parties, the MML would get good share. The MML has already announced that it would contest by-elections from NA-4, Peshawar.

Coming back to the key contest between the PML-N and the PTI, the theme of the campaign of both should be a matter of concern for others. While the PML-N, in its campaign, asked the people to reject the SC verdict through their vote in favour of Sharifs, the PTI and Imran campaigned that the outcome of NA-120 would determine whether people stand with the SC.

Therefore, the whole campaign of the two parties revolved around the same theme i.e. pro- and anti-verdict, which is something dangerous. The PML-N, despite being in power in Centre and in Punjab, campaigned not as a ruling party but someone facing pressure from different quarters and even in the end it complained that several of its workers were kidnapped and are missing.

NA-120 was crucial for the PML-N and its leader former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, as it was held as a result of his disqualification in Panama Papers case. Defeat here would have sealed his chances in general elections because he or the party has not lost elections in this constituency for long. So, the result brought a sigh of relief for him and the PML-N.

Why I said it’s a wake-up call, because if the PTI could manage 10,000 to 15,000 votes, Sharif would have lost on his home ground. In 2013, I was in Lahore during the elections and it was clearly divided between the PML and the PTI camps. The result and margin also showed that had PTI done some hard work in the last four years, it could have performed better.

No wonder why Imran is giving full attention to Punjab and in a way had neglected the party in Sindh and Balochistan in particular, as he wants to win maximum seats in Punjab.

While the general elections have its own political dynamics, the 2018 elections would be held when the fate of Sharifs would be decided. But, it is more than clear that the focus of the PML campaign would not merely be on development or success in ending load-shedding but on its 'anti-establishment' and in a way on anti-judiciary stance, depending on the final fate of Sharifs, who will be facing NAB references in accountability courts. The very indication that they may boycott the proceedings shows that the PML is in a mood to handle the situation politically, sensing the possible outcome.

Result and the margin of defeat clearly showed that the PML-N needs to do a lot more, if they want to perform better in the general elections, as the voting percentage clearly gave an edge to the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) compared with its position in 2013. In a low turnout match, PTI's Dr Yasmin Rashid pulled over 47,000 votes against the winner Kulsoom Nawaz's over 61,000 votes. In 2013, Nawaz Sharif pulled some 91,000 votes against Rashid’s 52,000.

Important factors in Punjab politics have always been birdari or cast. The non-party based elections of 1985 had badly damaged the ideological politics, whether of right or left. On the one hand, it made feudal, Sardar culture strong but also divided society on ethnic and sectarian lines.

The failure of political parties to introduce the culture of democracy in themselves also encouraged politics of electables. In the next 10 to 15 years, mainstream political parties would be struggling to find leaders to lead and in the process will give space to undemocratic forces.

NA-120 is situated in the heart of Lahore, and its result in this charged political atmosphere had only given the PML a launching pad for general elections. Its leadership also knows that despite victory, it has to do a lot more to restore the confidence of its voters, not only in NA-120, but also in other constituencies as turnout in 2018 would certainly be much higher and can hurt the PML.

The opposition also has time to revisit their politics and improve its organisational capabilities to meet the challenges ahead.

All in all, it was a good election, violence-free and held in a peaceful atmosphere. Parties should also try to make the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) awake and also empower them as an independent and powerful institution.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO