Destination: Panama. Time allowed: 60 days. Route taken: Panama via Hudaibiya. Yes, Panama is 14,557 kilometres from the Federal Judicial Academy in Islamabad and the JIT was given only 60 days. Lo and behold, Hudaibiya is a thousand times closer. The JIT, therefore, grabbed Hudaibiya on its way to Panama.
The JIT’s final report is only two days away and then it will be up to the Supreme Court’s Implementation Bench. There are three major scenarios. First, the SC dismisses the petitions against PM Nawaz Sharif. Second, a reference is sent to NAB or a trial court. Third, the SC disqualifies PM Nawaz Sharif. From what I have gathered, Scenario 1 is more or less out.
For PM Nawaz Sharif, Panama is a two-frontal war: legal and political. Unfortunately, PM Nawaz Sharif’s lone legal defence is the letter from Qatar. On the political front, history is witness that the PML-N’s political strategy has beaten all other political strategies. The problem here is that the PML-N’s political strategy is up against a non-political entity: the Supreme Court of Pakistan.
For PM Nawaz Sharif, the JIT has to be blocked from going in the direction that the JIT is heading in. The PML-N has a whole host of political options. First, make the JIT politically controversial. Second, boycott the JIT. Third, divide the SC or clash with it. Fourth, dissolve the National Assembly. Fifth, bring people out on to the streets. Sixth, resort to the NRO.
Option 1 has already been exercised with little or no results. Relying on Option 2 – boycotting the JIT– at this advanced stage is not going to block the JIT from going in the direction that it is heading in. Option 3 –dividing the SC or clashing with it –will surely backfire. Option 4 – dissolving the National Assembly – will not stop the JIT from going in the direction that it is heading in. Option 5 involves bringing people out on to the streets. But against whom?
The PTI’s political narrative is that “money has been stolen from Pakistan and invested abroad”. The PML-N’s counter-narrative is that the JIT is not about accountability but it is a conspiracy – “a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful”. The counter-narrative is not selling well because the PML-N needs to clearly identify the ‘secret plan’ and the ‘group’ that is doing “something unlawful or harmful”.
For the PML-N, these are the most difficult of times. The PML-N’s options are getting more and more restrictive. Option 1: continue with the JIT and then the SC’s decision. Option 2: clash. Option 3: transition. Option 1 is full of all forms of risks. Option 2? Yes, but who should they clash with? Option 3? But who should they make a transition to? Does this option involve a transition within Nawaz Sharif’s family, to Shahbaz Sharif’s family or to someone outside the Sharif family?
For the Sharif family, this is particularly an extremely trying phase because the family is not being able to ‘manage’ the JIT as it has successfully ‘managed’ a whole host of state institutions over the past three decades.
Who said “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future?”
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.
Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh
