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Thursday March 28, 2024

No silver lining yet

By M Saeed Khalid
June 21, 2017

The good news is that Donald Trump is not inclined to launch a new war. Iran is his adversary of choice. China is the emerging villain on the global stage. European cousins have to be coaxed into coughing up more money to bring down US expenses on defence. Mexico is a tough nut to crack. But Trump just designated a new whipping boy, the hapless Cuba, to implement the cherished agenda of making America great again?

Trump appeared amid Cuban exiles in the ‘Little Havana’ of Miami and announced how he was going to intimidate Cuba by choking off some of the breathing space provided by Obama after a blockade of over 50 years. After venting anger over “a completely one-sided deal with Cuba” by his predecessor, Trump signed a directive ordering new travel and trade restrictions but leaving in place some key measures that had eased US sanctions on Cuba.

In effect, the changes are destined to restrict Cuban military or intelligence-sponsored commercial activities. Diplomatic relations and tourism will largely remain intact. Yet, Trump’s belligerence toward the regime in Cuba is likely to end in greater uncertainty in a relationship that had been hailed as one of Obama’s positive contributions.

Looking closer to Pakistan, Trump’s hostility toward Iran remains an important plank of the new administration’s foreign policy. However, the tycoon-president likes the smell of money and there is big money in maintaining trade with Iran which plans to spend scores of billions of dollars on renewing its commercial aviation fleet and other vital equipment. Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia was also expected to result in mega bucks for US industries. Even the enfant terrible of the region, Qatar, has shown eagerness to buy advanced air defence from the US. Trump could not be happier at all these lucrative deals to suck hundreds of billions of petrodollars from the Gulf monarchies and Iran while keeping the latter on notice.

In a dramatic power play, Qatar is paying a heavy price for ‘waywardness’ towards its ‘elders’ in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Surprisingly, Trump has taken credit for the tough action taken by Riyadh and its close allies against Qatar. It is the hour of reckoning for the young Qatari emir who apparently failed to recognise that the regional power game had changed after Obama’s departure and Trump’s strident stance against Iran. The US president’s sword dance with the Saudis sealed the new anti-Iran compact. Qatar has little choice other than going back to the drawing board and weighing its options. On surface, it cannot go on hobnobbing with Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas without serious consequences.

PM Nawaz Sharif made a good move by proceeding to Riyadh to express solidarity with our Saudi friends, showing where our sympathies lay despite business deals with Qatar at state and family levels. The PM is now at the two holy mosques for prayer and atonement and then reportedly to London for personal, family and political reasons. That comes after his appearance before the JIT probing the money trail of the vast business enterprises of the Sharif family.

Nawaz Sharif’s confidence and composure in very adverse circumstances are in sharp contrast to Imran Khan’s invective and personal attacks against the prime minister and his family. The PTI leader sees the Panama case as his last chance to destabilise the government before the elections due in 2018. He overlooks the possibility that a decision in the case could actually trigger an early election before the PML-N is re-engineered. If Nawaz is resolute in his will to stay in power, Imran remains undeterred in his intentions to bring down the government through non-electoral means.

It is not possible to dwell on domestic and regional developments without feeling disconcerted over the uncertainties in our relations with crucial neighbours like India and Afghanistan. The question on many minds is whether the simultaneous entry of Pakistan and India in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation can have a beneficial impact on Pakistan’s strained ties with India and Afghanistan.

The optimistic scenario is that both China and Russia may be genuinely interested in promoting détente between Pakistan and India as well as lowering mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul. Both are qualified to play the role of honest brokers. Moscow hosted the peace conference after the 1965 war, and succeeded in normalising ties between the two countries. More recently, Ufa in Russia was the host to a meeting between the premiers of Pakistan and India, aimed at kick-starting the suspended bilateral dialogue.

Russia and China are keen to see the rollback of Islamic militancy that had spilled over into their territories from Central Asia, prompting the launch of Shanghai-5 that was later re-baptised as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation with the inclusion of Uzbekistan – and now further expanded to include Pakistan and India. Moscow and Beijing feel that better relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan will reduce American role in the area which is the other cause of building a security forum that includes important Asian powers as well as the neighbours of Afghanistan.

Questions remain over India’s commitment to the success of the SCO. Last year, it had forced postponement of the Saarc summit in Islamabad with the avowed purpose of isolating Pakistan. The onus of reviving the Saarc process lies squarely with India. We know too well India’s motives in blocking the dialogue process with Pakistan. Yet, Islamabad and many other capitals are waiting to see if the warm handshakes between Nawaz and Modi at the SCO summit in Astana can lead to even a mild reconciliatory gesture or if the BJP will keep pursuing its zero-sum game in South Asia.

 

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com