Monsoon rainfall to be normal this time around

Islamabad

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast normal monsoon rainfall in the country during the first half of the season (July to September) and below normal during the second.

In a weather advisory issued in the shape of the ‘Outlook for Summer Monsoon 2017’, the PMD said large uncertainties prevailed in the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also known as the Indian Niño.

It however said most of the models were in consensus of neutral phase of phenomena during the season. "Consequent upon prevailing ocean and atmospheric conditions, summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be normal in the first half and below normal in the second half of the season, in Pakistan."

According to the PMD, the area weighted rainfall during monsoon season over Pakistan is expected to fall short of long term average but the rainfall will be highly variable over temporal and spatial scale.

"During July, monsoon rainfall may range in normal limits but less than normal rainfall is likely in August and September. Also, less frequent rains in southern half of the country may trigger drought like conditions," it said.

The department said there was a high probability of localised rain spells to generate flash floods in mountainous and sub-mountainous regions. It said due to erratic behaviour of the summer monsoon, extreme precipitation events might occur at isolated places in the country and thus, causing floods. The PMD warned that the localized events of rainfall coupled with rapid melting in the glaciated regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral could trigger glacial lake outburst floods.