Power politics

Capital suggestion

Our newly elected government is now 18 months old. Over the past 18 months, the Pakistani amphitheatre has seen three major power players and three game-changing events. The three major power players on the stage are: PM Nawaz Sharif, COAS General Raheel Sharif and Chairman Imran Khan.
The three game-changing events: One, November 29, 2013, when Lieutenant-General Raheel Sharif became the Chief of Army Staff. Two, June 15, 2014, when General Sharif ordered Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Three, December 16, 2014, when militants attacked the Army Public School.
In February 2014, Ajit Doval, now Modi’s National Security Advisor, in his speech on the 10th Nani Palkhivala Memorial, said, “You can do one Mumbai, you may lose Balochistan.”
In June 2014, PM Sharif gifted a white sari for Modi’s mother – perhaps Sharif’s last gift to Modi. Since that time, the India-Pakistan policy has completely moved out of civilian hands. And then in October India promised “more pain” for Pakistan.
On the external front, Islamabad has managed to lose all four capitals – Washington, London, Kabul and Delhi-to the GHQ. On the internal front, there have been four very visible mutations. One, corps commanders are now leading internal security in provinces. Two, politicians as well as the general public have accepted the army as the primary driving force. Three, there has been an ‘incremental shifting of power’ from Islamabad to Pindi. Four, military courts.
PM Sharif has been left with three domains. One, the energy sector. Two, infrastructure – metrobuses and motorways. Three, civil bureaucracy – transfers and postings. And of the three domains, the energy sector – electricity and now petrol – is proving to be a major disaster in the making.
To be certain, Imran Khan has always been a non-existential threat to PM Sharif. Post-December 16, Imran Khan has come out a much weaker threat and, as a consequence, PM Sharif’s immunity has taken a jump for the better. Who said that the ‘music at a wedding procession always reminds me of the music of soldiers going into battle?’
General Sharif is the only existential threat to PM Sharif. For the record, there have been two common elements among all of Pakistan’s four martial laws: they have all been bloodless and the ruling politicians have never been in agreement with the military commanders taking over the reigns of power. Amazingly, since November 2013, the ‘incremental shifting of power’ from Islamabad to Pindi seems consensual.
As of January 22, the Supreme Court (SC) also seems to be getting back into the power play. The SC can do one of the three things: endorse military courts, strike down military courts or seek some sort of a compromise (whereby decisions from military courts are given the right to appeal). If SC strikes down military courts we are headed from a petrol crisis into some sort of a constitutional gridlock.
Our politicians are all old. Our political narratives are all old. Terrorists are old. Terrorism is an old story and terrorist narratives are also old. Madressah curricula are old and so are our prayer leaders. Public school curriculum along with its hate content is also old. Our economic models are all old and so are our parasitic cartels. The only new barnstormer is General Raheel Sharif.
Back at the barnyard, common Pakistanis have a new philosophy. We are only going to dread one day at a time.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com
Twitter: @saleemfarrukh