Talks on Syria

After a full-year, the Syrian peace talks are back on but there is not much hope that they will lead to anything concrete. The first round of discussions was held on Thursday in Geneva in a changed international atmosphere, but with the Syrian government and opposition still in different rooms. The US government is now under Donald Trump, whose idea of the future of Syria is based on the singular goal of crippling Isis. The UN helm is now held by António Guterres, who remains cautious for now. Turkey has shifted alliances from the Syrian opposition to the Syrian government. Preliminary discussions will continue with both the Syrian parties in separate rooms. The last attempt failed after both sides were unable to come up with more than a bare minimum set of points after two rounds of talks. Any hope in Russia’s ability to get the Syrian government to come with a softer stance proved unfounded. This is the fate that the UN is keen to avoid this time around. The solution has not been anything concrete. Instead, Western diplomats have merely tempered down the expectations for now. Little has changed inside Syria to suggest that the Syrian government delegation will be in a more conciliatory mood. If anything, it feels itself to be in a stronger position after seizing Eastern Allepo. The opposition comes to the table weakened by internal fighting between its factions.

There seems to be little compromise possible in terms of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s position – a key sticking point. This raises the question: what is the point of the peace talks? There is so little belief in the futility of the exercise that it seems a moot point that the discussions are taking place at all. Perhaps, the hope is merely to give a breather for humanitarian aid to flow into the country. Or, perhaps, the UN wishes to give both sides a taste of what peace looks like – albeit temporarily. The absence of solutions is apparent. This has raised questions on the UN’s authority to host the peace talks. Failure to get anything concrete out of this round of talks will only lead to even more questions. New UN Secretary General Guterres is simplifying matters when he says ‘peace is only possible when none of the parties to the conflict think they can win.’ There is more to this conflict than the two parties involved. All the international actors involved in the conflict must also desire peace. The changing geopolitical matrix suggests this is yet to be the case. It might be up to the two Syrian sides to remember that it is their battle that has created the space for groups like Isis to continue to plunder Syria. It is now up to the Syrian government and opposition to work out if they prefer to continue the chaos and brutal violence in the country they claim to represent or negotiate a settlement to bring back peace. These talks may fail – but talking is still the only way for peace to return to Syria.