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Erdogan’s visit to boost bilateral ties

By Fasihur Rehman Khan
November 17, 2016

Islamabad

Turkish Leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is undertaking his first bilateral visit to Pakistan after quelling this July military coup and assuming responsibilities as president of the state, after remaining prime minister for two consecutive terms.

He had in the past years undertaken a number of visits to Pakistan as Prime Minister. As Pakistan and Turkey, being strongest in the Muslim world in terms of defence capabilities, face looming geo strategic challenges in their respective neighborhoods. Pakistani politicians, defense and foreign policy analysts feel there is a need to transform the historic relations between the two countries into a formidable strategic partnership, especially in defense and economic cooperation.

The News talked to politicians, former diplomats, analysts, and government figures on the issue. While Pakistan’s strategic cooperation with Turkey has grown exponentially over the past one and half decades, with avenues of joint defense production looming large, the framework for a stronger, sustainable economic cooperation is still in the works.

Till the Free Trade Agreement is not finalised and implemented, bilateral trade will continue to underperform. Pakistan and Turkey are no more parallel economies as was perceived in the 1980s and 1990s. Both have their own way, with Turkey being one of the top 20 economies globally.

Pakistan has largely been a victim of adverse image due to terrorists hitting at will while its governments and diplomats did little to paint a realistic picture. Besides lack of modernization and effective quality controls, Pakistan’s exports at large remained victim to power outages and bureaucratic red-tappism.

Turkish businessmen have been looking increasingly westward for big business since the country’s resurgence under Tayyip Erdogan and former President Abdullah Gul. It’s less than a decade ago that Ankara realized to diversify its trade relations with the GCC, Pakistan and east Asia. While diplomats have largely been laid back, the credit for keeping brand Turkey alive and popular goes to Turkish schools, humanitarian organization Kimse Yok Mu and Rumi Forum etc.

Today, thousands of Pakistanis, youth in particular, can speak Turkish. Culturally, the advent of Urdu-dubbed Turkish dramas brought fresh stories and visuals for the Pakistani people, thus creating an appetite for its cuisine, products and tourism.

Over the past five years, Turkish Airlines has grown its operations by 300 per cent if not more. Soft image and brotherhood notwithstanding, Pakistan-Turkey economic ties are marginal compared to realistic potential of $5-10 billion.

PPP Senator Sherry Rehman, a former Information minister and Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US, believes: “Turkey remains one of the strongest supporters of Pakistan, and stands by the right to self-determination of the Kashmiri people. Strategically, it has also played an integral role in bringing peace and stability in the region through the trilateral summit dialogues for stabilizing Afghanistan and by hosting the Istanbul Process. Pakistan and Turkey have also sustained a close military relationship with a steady stream of defense deals and joint military operations”. “I am very optimistic about the present level of relations between Pakistan and Turkey.

“However, there is always room for improvement and we can do a lot better in areas such as trade and investment,” she added. “Economically, there is major untapped potential between the two countries for economic cooperation.”

The combined consequences and spillover from the instability and security threats in the region has only brought the two countries closer together. The expansion of terrorist groups and their momentum, plus their increasingly transnational nature are pressing concerns that both countries must focus on. We must work towards more dialogue and engagement that will better equip both countries to face common regional and global challenges”.

“Both countries have a multitude of shared interests and values such as borders with volatile regions, refugee influxes and  terrorism, which makes finding common ground for cooperation and dialogue much easier”. “If there is one area that would significantly boost this effort, it’s more people-to-people contact. Turkey has offered generous scholarship programmes to Pakistani students and it attracts millions of Pakistani tourists annually and its entertainment industry has found a solid fan base in Pakistan. Pakistan, for its part, must develop a similar cultural diplomacy strategy to galvanize the relationship of Pakistan and Turkey as partners not just at the government level but also amongst its people,” Senator Rehman concluded.

Naveed Ahmed, senior journalist specialising in security and diplomacy currently based in Qatar and Turkey, said: “The air forces of Pakistan and Turkey have enjoyed excellent relation over the past decades. While Islamabad generously helped Turkey’s air force during the Cyprus crisis when it was facing military related sanctions, Ankara returned the favor with similar vigor in the 90s when Pakistan Air Force’s F-16s were dangerously close to be grounded. Though defense cooperation was then largely shrouded in secrecy, it’s no more the case”.

“Pakistan and Turkey need to upgrade industrial research and cooperation immediately. Joint industrial production will eventually feed into projects relating to high-end sophistication requite for development of military and space equipment,” Naveed asserted.

Aamir Ghauri, a senior journalist and foreign policy analyst, believed the history of Pakistan's relationship with Turkey can best be described as firm, cordial and stable. “But the present trip of the Turkish leader can be seen differently by different power holders in the country. While Nawaz Sharif may intend to use President Erdogan's visit as a message to forces inimical to democratically elected government, those opposed to Sharif and his politics may read it otherwise. Imran and his allegedly phantasmal backers would like to paint the Erdogan trip as an attempt to salvage a cornered politician rather than helping a cornered country”.

“It is unclear what's on the agenda and if any substantial material gains are to had since President Erdogan's last visit but Pakistan can rekindle the RCD spirit by ensuring increased trade through land thereby tying Iran into the scheme. It would push back the Indian entree into Iranian sphere to some extent and ensure a solidified stance if the Middle Eastern theatre gets murkier between Iran and Saudi Arabia”.

“Since world politics is still better suited to bilateral ties than multilateral, any attempt to seek a permanent seat for a Muslim state on the basis of religion or against any single state won't serve any purpose. Pakistan should focus on redoubling its trade volume with Turkey and start long-term projects that could reignite commercial activity in the country thereby creating employment. Nawaz Sharif government has been too weak on delivering anything for the people. Praising China or Turkey won't help its cause in the long run. Instead, it can create problems for Sharifs that they have damaged long standing friendly ties with a durable friend for personal political gain.

“In terms of defence and strategic cooperation, rather than gloating about defence deals and weapons sales, Pakistan should exchange notes on ISIS and ways to combat the latest terrorist outfit that has plans for Pakistan too,” Ghauri concluded.

Jan Achakzai, Special Assistant to Chief Minister Balochistan, said: “Pakistan-Turkey relations have blossomed into a strategic understanding on many issues that both countries have converged on. Turkey after failed coup felt betrayed as to how its stability was undermined”.

“Earlier, already its interests were contested by the US and Nato in Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Caucasus and the Balkans. Equally, Pakistan is also gradually bracing to come out of its alliance with the US-after Washington strategically signalled to prop up India-and expanding on strategic and economic relations with China. Islamabad is going to be Turkey's window to the world's economic power house-China. Along with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan also offers a unique opportunity to Turkey to form a strong regional security alliance at time when the US and Nato security guarantees are increasingly perceived eroded by allies and member states alike- from Philippines, Thailand, Sweden, besides, Saudi Arabia and to Turkey itself. Turkey will also be seeking help to be part of increasingly realigned geo-geopolitical convergence between Pakistan, China and Russia,” he said.

The CPEC is another magnet that can bind together both countries. Pakistan and Turkey are also well placed as active Muslim countries for reforming UNSC. At times when Turkey needs help, Pakistan must come forward to strengthen this bond further, Achakzai concluded.