Stocks, euro jump on Trump EU tariff delays

LONDON/SINGAPORE: Global markets climbed on Monday and the euro rallied after US President Donald Trump kicked his threat to slap 50 per cent tariffs on European Union goods into July, marking another temporary trade policy reprieve.

MSCI’s broadest index of world shares rose 0.2 per cent. The pan-European stocks index last up .9 per cent, recovered to where it was trading before Trump on Friday unexpectedly called for 50 per cent tariffs on European goods, saying negotiations with the region had become too sluggish.

On Sunday, Trump reversed course, pushing the deadline for tariffs to July 9 from June 1, after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the 27-nation bloc needed more time to produce a deal.

Trump’s latest policy moves were a reminder to investors how quickly circumstances could change. Analysts have pointed out that investors are shifting their money out of US markets to Europe and Asia as they price in a possible US recession and a consequent global slowdown.

Last Friday’s comments were a reminder of Trump and his administration’s unpredictable and seemingly incoherent policies and decision-making, Commerzbank said in a note.“Now, a really toxic cocktail is mixed for the US consisting of (1) rising risk premium to hold US assets, (2) global investors’ move towards increased portfolio diversification, and (3) an increased homeland focus,” said a note from SEB Research, adding that they expected the dollar to lose value while US interest rates could rise further.

EURO GAINS

The dollar fell 0.1 per cent against a basket of currencies on Monday. The euro appreciated 0.23 per cent to $1.138 - its highest since late April, while the pound ticked almost 0.2 per cent upwards to 1.3567.“It still is largely a ‘sell dollar story’,” said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC.

“The policy unpredictability surrounding Trump’s tariffs and of course, the erosion of the US exceptionalism, this could potentially still undermine sentiment and the confidence in the medium term.”

Trading volumes on Monday were expected to be thinner than usual, given that markets in the United States and Britain were closed due to public holidays.Ballooning debt levels in developed economies were also brought back into focus following Moody’s credit rating downgrade of the United States and weak debt auctions in the US and Japan last week.

Inflation reports come from Japan and Germany later this week, along with price data on US goods and services.China and Hong Kong stocks closed lower on Monday as automobile shares slid on price war concerns, and Apple suppliers dropped on potential US tariffs.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite index weakened 0.1 per cent while the blue-chip CSI300 index dropped 0.6 per cent.In Japan, Nikkei 225 closed 1.0 per cent higher, its sharpest one-day advance in almost two weeks, after Trump appeared to give his blessing to Nippon Steel’s takeover of US Steel.

Japanese government bonds also rallied, following a dramatic week in which super-long yields hit record levels.Super-long Japanese bonds will be in focus, with inflation data expected later in the week as investors try to gauge the Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook.

On the commodities front, Brent and US crude prices LCOc1, CLc1 both traded 23 cents lower, to $64.54 and $61.28 respectively, while gold eased from a two-week high to $3,339 an ounce.