Betting on Beijing

As Pakistan celebrates a decade since the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was launched this year, the country found another immediate reason to celebrate its ties to its ‘iron brother’.

Last week’s military encounter with India ended on a high note for Pakistan, as a Chinese-provided batch of J-10 CP fighter planes armed with the PL-15 missiles shot down three French Rafale fighters over Indian territory. Two Russian fighters and an advanced Israeli drone were shot down too.

The event immediately sparked global interest as it was the first-ever targeting of a Rafale, otherwise considered an unbeatable fighter on the world stage. The event was a milestone for Pakistan’s ties with China, with a shared history that must be well remembered, preserved and celebrated.

In a chance encounter between this writer and the late Air Marshal Noor Khan, the latter recalled China’s generosity in the mid-1960s, which laid a solid foundation for Sino-Pakistan ties for years to come.

He remembered rushing to China after the 1965 Indo-Pak war to acquire a batch of F-6 fighter planes – the Chinese equivalent to the Mig-19s earlier produced by the former Soviet Union.

This was the time the US slapped sanctions on Pakistan for the latter’s use of American equipment to defend itself. In Beijing, after the Chinese agreed to Air Marshal Noor Khan’s request, the obvious question of the price tag followed.

And Air Marshal Noor Khan, in the version of events he cited, was left hugely surprised. “I didn’t know what to say when the Chinese said, the two squadrons [of F-6 fighters] are a gift from the people of China to the people of Pakistan”, he recalled.

Years later, in 1971, Pakistan’s main line of aerial defence was led by the US-supplied F-86 ‘Sabre’ fighters, with the F-6 now the essential second line. The story of China’s support for Pakistan’s security remains intact almost 60 years later, and the trend continues to expand very rapidly.

In sharp contrast, the decades since the Chinese grant of two squadrons of the F-6 fighters to Pakistan remain an era where the US's relationship with Pakistan has gone through many ups and downs, or more accurately, from sanctions to outright support.

Therefore, it is not surprising that international open-source material estimates suggest that more than 80 per cent of Pakistan’s military hardware imports originate from just one source: China.

Today, Pakistan’s three armed forces are equipped with essential Chinese hardware. The reported induction of Chinese Z-10 helicopters, expected to begin this year, was preceded by two examples of a US letdown, which policymakers must remember for times to come.

Almost a decade ago, the US agreed to provide Pakistan with badly needed AH-1Z ‘Viper’ attack helicopters. But that supply never came despite an acute need for close ground support, as Pakistan’s ground troops battled Afghanistan-based militants.

Then, Pakistan signed up to buy Turkish-manufactured T-129 ATAK gunship helicopters to meet its needs. Yet, that contract was also abandoned for a US-related reason – Washington’s refusal to allow the export of an American-made engine equipping the T-129 ATAK gunships to a third country.

Pakistan’s air power would not be able to compete against its enemy, India, without China’s support in building and continuously modernising Islamabad’s prized JF-17 fighter planes.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s armed forces will remain equipped with Chinese equipment for the foreseeable future. For the army, the ‘Haider’ main battle tank or new SH-15 artillery guns, in addition to the incoming helicopters, are designed to fill key gaps in our line of defence.

At the same time, Pakistan’s critical naval expansion would not be possible without China’s support. The most robust expansion of Pakistan’s submarine fleet is centrally anchored around the induction of eight new ‘Hangor’ class submarines.

Opting for Chinese submarines became inevitable after Pakistan was effectively blocked from purchasing submarines from European sources. China also continues to help Pakistan manufacture new naval vessels to eventually meet the country’s stated target of building up a force of 50 battleships.

Last but not least, the Pakistan Air Force is known to be aiming to induct a batch of Chinese J-31 or J-35 fighter planes – the first entry of stealth fighters to South Asia. The edge over India, notably after the latest encounter, can not be lost to observers looking at Delhi's mammoth spending.

India plans to spend more than a reported $15 billion on purchasing 36 Rafale fighters for its air force and another 23 recently agreed for the navy. This contrasts sharply with Pakistan’s very modest expenditure on purchasing its J-10s.

The outcome of the Indo-Pak aerial battle over South Asia in the past week must reassure Pakistan that it made the right choice by placing most of its eggs in the Beijing basket.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs. He can be reached at: farhanbokhari@gmail.com